10/23/21 NHL Main Slate Analysis and Breakdown


Favorite Targets

Elias Pettersson (6900), Quinn Hughes (5300), JT Miller (5500), Brock Boeser (5600)

Seattle has been one of the worst defenses in the league this year, which isn’t terribly surprising considering they are an expansion team. They are bottom five in Expected Goals Against at even strength, which doesn’t bode well for tonight. The Canucks have also scored three fewer goals than they’re Expected Goals indicates which means this gives them a nice boost for positive regression. This cheap and high potential stack is very easy to get to tonight.

Nico Hischier (5800), Dougie Hamilton (6800), Jesper Bratt (4300)

The wind underneath the Sabres’ sails should die down sooner than later as we witnessed last night against a Bruins team that had some tough puck luck in the first two games.  They, again, get a team that scored three less goals than expected thus far and are likely due for some puck luck sooner rather than later. I also don’t mind some super cheap plays with upside like Dawson Mercer and Ty Smith, both below 3k.

Oliver Wahlstrom (3600), Ryan Pulock (4900), Kieffer Bellows (3200)

Teams against Arizona will be an often high priority game as they continue to battle Buffalo for the worst total roster. Goalie Karel Vejmelka has been a nice surprise for the Coyotes but I don’t think he can be depended upon every game. This means I expect him to get walloped soon. I prefer the cheap options in this game as there are better expensive options on the slate. I love Wahlstrom the most and wouldn’t blame you if you just ran him as a one-off.

Jordan Kyrou (5100), Brayden Schenn (5400), Klim Kostin (2500)

I love getting the opponents of teams that are on the second game of road back-to-backs and that’s what we have here tonight with the Kings, especially with the news that Drew Doughty will miss the game. I prefer the second line staples of Kyrou and Schenn to do the heavy lifting but I also don’t mind taking a punt on Kostin slotted on the top line for tonight. If he were to be taken off there, then that love is null and void.

Nikolai Ehlers (5500), Kyle Connor (6900)

With the injuries to Blake Wheeler and Mark Schiefele, the important minutes are being condensed to just a few players, the two most important ones being Connor and Ehlers. Both are in a great spot tonight against a less than stellar Preds team. I also like Stastny, Copp, and Dubois (in that order) but they are tertiary pieces or fine one-offs.

GPP Pivots

Dylan Larkin (6500), Lucas Raymond (3400), Robby Fabbri (4100)

A neat thing to remember about the Red Wings: Tyler Bertuzzi’s anti-vaccinated status leaves him at the border for road games in Canada. This means we get some important minutes opening up for some cheap players against a bad team and it looks like this slate’s lucky winners are Robby Fabbri and Lucas Raymond. These two are great options to save on salary in a nice game environment.

Sergei Bobrovsky (7900), Jonathan Huberdeau (5300), Sam Reinhart (4800)

We get a matchup between the league leader in Goals Scored Above Expected (the luckiest team offense in the league) which is Philadelphia and the league leader in Goals Saved Above Expected (the luckiest team defense in the league) which is Florida. Now we get a spot where two meteors of puck luck will crash into each other and we have to bet on the winner. My money will be on Florida for this one and I think Bobrovsky is quite the interesting play tonight. You can play everyone on Florida’s skaters if you desire.