10/25/21 NHL Main Slate Analysis and Breakdown


High Priority

Huberdeau (5700), Bennett (6000), Barkov (7600), Ekblad (7000), Verhaeghe (5800), Tippett (2900), Montour (2700), Reinhart (4800), Forsling (4500), Duclair (3900), Luostarinen (2500)

So far this season, there are only two teams that have allowed 25 goals so far. Those would be the Blackhawks (in 6 GP) and the Arizona Coyotes. For, at least, the short term we should just target their opponents as high priority. So tonight, the Coyotes get the pleasure of facing one of five teams that have scored at least 20 goals so far this season. Everyone on the Panthers side is viable tonight and you should have at least one player from Florida in every lineup. Everyone on that team is, at least, a GPP play, even the bottom of the roster guys. This is going to be a landslide for the Panthers and you should take advantage of a team that should be highly owned, but not owned enough.

Trocheck (5000), Necas (4400), DeAngelo (4400), Pesce (3600), Kotkaniemi (3000)

The Leafs have been a high event team thus far, which means they get a ton of quality but they give up a ton of quality. Carolina is similar but closer to neutral. This is a great game stacking environment. You can definitely play both sides in a high pace game but I prefer the Carolina side by a good bit. Mostly due to the fact that a lot of their guys getting high-calorie minutes on the ice are very cheap. So you can certainly play the expensive guys in this game if you want, however I think I want to spend up for Florida in most lineups. A Trocheck/Necas stack gives us a fantastic opportunity to buy-the-dip on two players that should be above 6k. DeAngelo and Pesce are also very cheap for getting power play time.

Hintz (3900), Pavelski (3500), Klingberg (4800)

In terms of 5v5 play, Columbus has been a bottom five team to start the season even if they’re macro numbers don’t indicate that. Their micro numbers indicate a team that gets outplayed a lot at even strength and they get to face a Dallas team that’s played low event hockey that needs some puck luck. Even if they aren’t the most aggressive team offensively, how can you not consider a fully correlated three man stack this cheap in such a great matchup? You should have at least one of these guys in every lineup you make.

GPP Pivots

Lindholm (6700), Gaudreau (6200)

At first glance, this game appears to be very unsexy for scoring. The Flames and Rangers thus far are two teams not really jumping off the page in the macros as each average just above two goals for per game. However, we have to consider the fact that the Rangers have been worse than the Coyotes at even strength so far this season. In a game that should have fairly low ownership, the price increases of the Flames’ top line create a sneaky spot for some big points. I would consider a mini-stack of Gaudreau and Lindholm, but I can get behind just one-offs here.

Jeff Skinner (4100)

Any time the Bolts decide to pivot in net to give Vasilevskiy some rest, you have to consider playing some of their opponents. Elliott is one of the worst goalies over the past three years and I don’t expect that to change behind a Bolts team that’s very average in terms of allowing quality chances. The only problem is picking Buffalo Sabres that you can live with putting money on the line. My choice tonight is Jeff Skinner. I don’t love playing Buffalo centers here because Point and Cirelli are excellent defensive opponents. Looking at our wing options, Skinner is a great crosspoint of skill and price. I also don’t mind Olofsson at 4800 either.

Goalie Options:

Safe but Chalky: Knight, Samsonov

Pivots: Holtby, Andersen, Anderson, Markstrom

Overowned: Elliott, Husso, Campbell

Why: Hutton, Forsberg