10/29/21 NHL Main Slate Analysis and Breakdown


High Priority

Aho (7400), Svechnikov (7500), Teravainen (6700), DeAngelo (5200), Trocheck (6200), Necas (4800), Pesce (4000), Kotkaniemi (3400), Bear (3000), Staal (3600), Niederreiter (3700)

One thing to know about the Blackhawks over the past few years: any time they travel to Raleigh to play the Canes, they get absolutely stomped. They’re 1-4-1 in the last 6 matchups with 24 goals allowed and a coin flip penalty kill. And this is all when the Hawks were actually decent. Now we have them in the year 2021 looking like dog shit on the bottom of your shoe and I expect this game to be a slaughter. All the Canes are in play todayt. Even guys like Martinook and Lorentz are GPP punts.I’m expecting the Canes to put up at least 5 goals tonight so let’s hop on them.

Ovechkin (8500), Carlson (5900), Wilson (4700), Kuznetsov (7200), Mantha (4700), McMichael (3200), Sprong (2800)

If we didn’t have the Carolina game on the slate, then I would love this spot a lot more, especially the pay up spots. However, we have a ton of viable plays under 5k. So if you wanted to spend up in this game, I understand. Ovechkin is going full Brady and chasing down records this year. Kuznetsov and Carlson are great players on their own. However, Tom Wilson, getting top line, top power play duties, is too cheap at 4700. He’s probably my favorite non-Cane play of the day with price factored. I also can dig punts on guys like McMichael and Sprong, that are too cheap with important minutes.

Panarin (6300), Fox (6000), Strome (4600)

For what it’s worth, I much prefer the first two teams above than the Rangers. That being said, we get a nice matchup to “buy the dip”. Panarin should be above 7k. Fox should be almost 7k. Strome should be at least 5k. I also don’t mind some cheaper punts in this game like Chytil (3400) and Kakko (3100).

GPP Pivots

Raymond (5100), Seider (4500)

I’m not entirely sure of what the record looks like for the first game of getting a new coach, but I would bet that it isn’t a winning one. That being said, it is pretty rare for a very good team to lose their coach so this might be a bit of a one-off occurrence here. In case you haven’t paid attention to hockey news over the past 48 hours, the Blackhawks buried a sexual assault scandal during their championship years and then-Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville was relieved of his duties yesterday for the Florida Panthers. If you think the calamity of the situation might distract this Panthers team for a game, then I think you should consider this mini-stack between the uber-talented Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.

Sillinger (3400), Bean (3500)

If we want to play the expensive guys in the high priority section, then we are going to have to find some solid cheap plays and I think this is one of the better ones. I love Cole Sillinger’s upside in general and I think he was the 2nd best prospect in the 2021 draft. Jake Bean was a savvy acquisition by the Blue Jackets and should continue to solidify himself on the 2nd power play unit while Boqvist is injured. It could definitely bust but even some tertiary stats like shots and blocks will get us to solid value at these prices.

Zegras (5000), Drysdale (4300)

Vegas is still the worst team at 5v5 defense. They are a good bit injured to some key guys which is likely the underlying cause here. Once everyone is healthy, I expect them to rise. But for now, we should take advantage. The Ducks have a sneaky spot here so we should certainly consider them at miniscule ownership. One thing to note is that Rickard Rakell might miss tonight with injury. If he’s out, I like this game less. If he’s in, I like it more. Simple enough.

Goalies:

Chalk: Samsonov, Bobrovsky

Pivot: Raanta, Gibson, Merzlikins, Shesterkin, Lehner

Please Don’t: Fleury, Vejmelka