Course: El Cameleon GC
Course Comps: Port Royal GC (Bermuda Championship), Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage)
Past Winners: Hovland (2020), Todd (2019), Kuchar (2018), Kizzire (2017), Perez (2016)
Key Notes: Fairway Accuracy, Coastal Courses
This week, the PGA heads to wonderful Playa del Carmen in Mexico where Viktor Hovland will defend his title at the beautiful, scenic El Cameleon Golf Course. It’s a very short course that’s accessible to everyone, which requires you to stay accurate off of the tee to avoid any of the danger on the course. If we see an uptick in gusts, then we could have a destruction round similar to the morning wave last week. We also have a very nice field for this event relative to the past few iterations.
10k and Higher:
Finally, a week where guys like Mito Periera are not priced in this range. We get a solid selection of upper end plays to consider and I love double dipping up here with the value down low. My favorite play is defending champ Viktor Hovland, which is nothing new if you know me. He’s an elite golfer that can keep the ball in the fairway at an astounding rate for someone considered to be a bomber. He’s 2nd in SG: OTT and 5th in SG: APP relative to the field along with being top ten in a bunch of other key model stats. Brooks Koepka and Tyrrell Hatton are both looking at sub 10% ownership so I will of course hammer these two hard in deep GPPs (and likely in general). Abe Ancer is shaping up to be the chalk donkey of the field and with the options accessible to us, I’ll leave him for others this week. If you want to play him though, he ranks 3rd in the model with his elite fairway finding.
This range gives us an insane spot to pivot off the field. A 9600 Aaron Wise appears to be a top three play in terms of popularity with the next four guys under him projecting single digit ownership. That’s Patrick Reed, Matthew Wolff, Shane Lowry, and Will Zalatoris. In my honest opinion, I believe all four of these golfers are better than Wise and all four are very playable this week. With these four getting no love, I think we have to strongly consider zagging the field on Wise.
If a course requires fairway accuracy and hot putting, then I don’t understand how Matt Fitzpatrick is this cheap and unowned. He’s in solid recent form with his win in Europe and a decent 30th in Bermuda. He’s easily my favorite play this week in the 8k range. Russell Henley and Mito Pereira are both very popular this week and I wouldn’t mind playing just one of the two in a single line. My preference would be Henley but couldn’t fault you for either. I also love Christiaan Bezuidenhout at a price where he shouldn’t get too much love. Everyone else in the 8s are just people I’d rather spend up or down from.
Seeing Justin Rose rank 6th in my model makes me sick but we have to consider him. His successes have come on coastal courses that play easy so he has the venue working for him. I will definitely get an inkling of him at such a low ownership number. My favorite play, though, is Harold Varner III. He’s in great form and had a 2nd place finish at one of our comp courses, RBC Heritage. The 7300 range is quite interesting and features three golfers that are decent on approach and all top twenty in finding fairways. They are Adam Hadwin, Russell Knox, and Brian Harman. I prefer Hadwin and Harman to Knox due to the putting abilities. I also don’t mind Pat Perez and Henrik Norlander but probably won’t go crazy on either.
One of the most egregious pricing fuck-ups in the field is a sub 7k Guido Migliozzi. He’s a great ball striker and a proven winner on the European tour. I expected him to be in the mid 7s and will gladly hammer him at this discounted price. Outside of Guido, there are plenty of quality punts down this way. Doug Ghim and Greyson Sigg stand out the most to me as both are great at finding the fairway off the tee. If you really need to dig deeper for a cheap guy, Doc Redman at 6300 is a solid choice.
10k: Hovland, Hatton
9k: Lowry, Zalatoris
7k: Varner, Niemann
6k: Migliozzi, Ghim