I will work through this Super Bowl matchup, analyzing any and all relevant data I can muster with regards to how players will perform in a DFS capacity.
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Offensive Injuries to Monitor
KC – NO ONE
SF – NO ONE
San Francisco 49ers (13-3, 1st Seed NFC) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, 2nd Seed AFC)
Sunday, February 2nd @ 630pm
6pm – 66 and Clear. Winds around 8mph with Gusts of 13mph
7pm – 64 and Clear. Winds around 8mph with Gusts of 12mph
8pm – 62 and Clear. Winds around 7mph with Gusts of 10mph
9pm – 61 and Clear. Winds around 7mph with Gusts of 9mph
Vegas Lines ?
Original/Open – O/U 54 – KC 27.75 – SF 26.25
Friday Night – O/U 54.5 – KC 27.75 – SF 26.75
Vegas Info (Saturday Night) – O/U – –
Team Statistics (2019-20)
Offensive Stats and NFL Rank
Pace (Overall) – 18th – 27.91 sec/play
Pace (Situation Neutral) – 18th – 29.1 sec/play
Points Scored – 5th – 451
Total Yards – 6th – 6067
Yards/Play – 2nd – 6.2
Fumbles Lost – T12 – 10
1st Downs – 6th – 350
Pass Attempts – 15th – 576
Pass Completions – 10th – 378
Comp % – 11th – 65.6%
Pass Yards/Game – 5th – 281.1
Pass TDs – 6th – 30
INTs – 2nd – 5
Rush Attempts – 27th – 375
Rush Yards/Game – 23rd – 98.1
Rush TDs – 14th – 16
3rd Down% – 1st – 47.6%
4th Down% – 5th – 60%
Red Zone% – 20th – 54%
Time/Drive – 6th – 2:52
Pts/Drive – 2nd – 2.62
Defensive Stats and NFL Rank
14th Overall – 6th Against the Pass – 29th Against the Run.
Variance – 16th – 5.8%
Strength of Schedule – 8th Hardest
Pace (Overall) – 10th – 27.4 sec/play
Pace (Situation Neutral) – 26th – 31.1 sec/play
Defensive TDs – 5
Points Allowed – 7th – 308
Yards Allowed – 17th – 5594
Yards/Play – T13 – 5.4
Fumbles Forced – T24 – 7
1st Downs Allowed – T23 – 344
Blitz% – 14th – 29.1%
QB Pressure% – 20th – 22.2%
Sacks – 11th – 45
INTs – 5th – 16
Rush TDs Allowed – T17 – 14
Rec TDs Allowed – T8 – 21
Pts/G Allowed – 7th – 19.3
3rd Down% Allowed – 11th – 37.1%
4th Down% Allowed – 20th – 51.6%
Red Zone% Allowed – 9th – 50.9%
Time/Drive Allowed – 30th – 2:59
Points/Drive Allowed – 15th – 1.90
Offensive Stats and NFL Rank
Pace (Overall) – 29th – 28.91 sec/play
Pace (Situation Neutral) – LAST – 31.36 sec/play
Points Scored – 2nd – 479
Total Yards – 4th – 6097
Yards/Play – 5th – 6.0
Fumbles Lost – T12 – 10
1st Downs – 14th – 336
Pass Attempts – 29th – 478
Pass Completions – 22nd – 331
Comp % – 3rd – 69.2%
Pass Yards/Game – 13th – 237
Pass TDs – 11th – 28
INTs – 19th – 13
Rush Attempts – 2nd – 498
Rush Yards/Game – 2nd – 144.1
Rush TDs – 1st – 23
3rd Down% – 5th – 45%
4th Down% – 6th – 58.3%
Red Zone% – 21st – 53.2%
Time/Drive – 11th – 2:46
Pts/Drive – 4th – 2.44
Defensive Stats and NFL Rank
2nd Overall – 2nd Against the Pass – 11th Against the Run.
Variance – 28th – 8.8%
Strength of Schedule – 13th Hardest
Pace (Overall) – 24th – 28.2 sec/play
Pace (Situation Neutral) – 31st – 30.63 sec/play
Defensive TDs – 5
Points Allowed – 8th – 310
Yards Allowed – 2nd – 4509
Yards/Play – T1 – 4.7
Fumbles Forced – 4th – 15
1st Downs Allowed – T3 – 285
Blitz% – 29th – 20.9%
QB Pressure% – 2nd – 28.7%
Sacks – 5th – 48
INTs – 17th – 12
Rush TDs Allowed – T7 – 11
Rec TDs Allowed – T13 – 23
Pts/G Allowed – 8th – 19.4
3rd Down% Allowed – T2 – 33.3%
4th Down% Allowed – 3rd – 32%
Red Zone% Allowed – T22 – 60%
Time/Drive Allowed – T9 – 2:38
Points/Drive Allowed – 4th – 1.64
Last Week – Conference Championships
KC – 35-24 Win Vs. Titans
First Downs – 27
Rush Attempts – 27
Rush Yards – 112
Rush TDs – 2
Pass Attempts – 35
Pass Completions – 23
Pass Yards – 294
Pass TDs – 3
INTs – 0
Total Yards – 404
Times Sacked – 2
Fumbles / Fumbles Lost – 1/0
Turnovers – 0
Penalties / Yards – 9 / 61
3rd Down Attempts – 6 for 10
4th Down Conversions – 1 for 1
Time of Possession – 29:50
Opp Time of Possession – 30:10
Patrick Maholmes (QB) – 23 for 35, 294 PYds, 3 TD, 120.4 Pass. Rating // 8 Att., 53 Yds, 1 TD
Damien Williams (RB) – 17 Att., 45 Rush Yds., 1 TD // 6 Tgts., 5 Rec., 44 Rec Yds.
Darwin Thompson (RB) – 1 Att., 7 Rush Yds. // 1 Tgt.
Tyreek Hill (WR) – 7 Tgt., 5 Rec., 67 Rec Yds., 2 TD // 1 Att., 7 Rush Yds.
Sammy Watkins (WR) – 10 Tgt., 7 Rec., 114 Yds., 1 TD
Travis Kelce (TE) – 4 Tgts., 3 Rec., 30 Yds.
Demarcus Robinson (WR) – 2 Tgts., 2 Rec., 31 Yds.
Mecole Hardman (WR) – 1 Tgt., 1 Rec., 8 Yds.
Anthony Sherman (FB) – 1 Tgt.
SF – 37-20 Win Vs. Packers
First Downs – 19
Rush Attempts – 42
Rush Yards – 285
Rush TDs – 4
Pass Attempts – 8
Pass Completions – 6
Pass Yards – 77
Pass TDs – 0
INTs – 0
Total Yards – 354
Times Sacked – 1
Fumbles / Fumbles Lost – 0 / 0
Turnovers – 0
Penalties / Yards – 2 / 10
3rd Down Attempts – 4 for 10
4th Down Conversions – 0 for 0
Time of Possession – 28:47
Opp Time of Possession – 31:13
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB) – 6 for 8, 77 PYds, 104.7 Pass. Rating // 4 Att., -1 Yd.
Raheem Mostert (RB) – 29 Att., 220 Rush Yds., 4 TD // 2 Tgts., 2 Rec., 6 Yds.
Tevin Coleman (RB) – 6 Att., 21 Rush Yds.
Matt Breida (RB) – 1 Att., 2 Rush Yds.
Deebo Samuel (WR) – 3 Tgts., 2 Rec., 46 Rec Yds. // 2 Att., 43 Rush Yds.
Kendrick Bourne (WR) – 1 Tgt., 1 Rec., 6 Yds.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR) – 1 Tgt.
George Kittle (TE) – 1 Tgt., 1 Rec., 19 Yds.
Super Bowl LIV Analysis
Welcome to the last day of the NFL season! The next time I talk to you about football, it’ll be August or September! Crazy! As you can see, for this game I gave you a ton of extra information – all of the weather information, the season-long numbers for both the offense and defense, as well as how both teams fared last week. I urge you to take some time and go over all of those numbers. They all paint a telling picture that you should be able to use to help you tell the story of the lineup you are going to play.
Cause, like I always say, that’s what it’s all about for showdowns – telling a story. You need to come up with a cohesive narrative and then find a lineup that fits it. If you think this game is a SF blowout where they win 35-0, it would make sense to lean on the SF running game, defense, and play less Chiefs players. If you think the game finishes 15-12, you want to make sure you play both kickers. If you think it’s a shootout, try to build around QBs and pass catchers. But, most importantly, figure out how you think this game will go, and build a lineup that fits that narrative. If you play multiple lineups, try to make sure every single one fits a narrative.
So what, then, is the story I expect to be told in this Super Bowl? How do I expect all the pieces to fall? Let’s take all the numbers we see above and use them to figure out the most likely way this game will go down!
First, I think the SF side of the ball is incredibly easy to figure out. As you can see above, SF really wants to run the ball. I mean, Jimmy G only attempted 8 pass attempts last game. They ran it nearly every time they had the ball and, if they didn’t run it, they threw a quick dump off to move the chains. They didn’t take any risks. They looked at the Packers weakness (which was, by far, against the run), and they hammered it relentlessly. I mean, the Packers were 10th best against the pass and 23rd best against the run. With those splits, I recommended you load up on Mostert 2 weeks ago. How does it look this week?
Well, the Chiefs are 6th against the pass and 29th against the run. They are better against the pass than GB and worse against the run. And not only are they worse against the run, the Chiefs are fourth worst against the run in the entire NFL. Against a team that would prefer to run it every time. I think we should all expect that to be the Niners game plan for almost the entirety of this game. So feel free to play Raheem Mostert as captain. If you look at ownership numbers, it looks like most people are leaning towards the QBs in that spot. I am almost certainly going to be going to Mostert instead. I also don’t mind taking a crazy pivot and playing Tevin Coleman, just know that he’s not going to get as much work (especially considering his injury), barring something happening to Mostert in-game. I would focus on this type of build strategy for almost every story you tell, with the exception if you believe the Chiefs will come out to a 3+ TD lead and the Niners will be forced to throw long and often.
If you do think the Niners are going to be dragged kicking and screaming into using their pass game, then I would look at one fact – the Chiefs are awesome on the perimeter. Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland have been great at limiting production all season. This means prioritizing Kendrick Bourne, who runs the slot a majority of the time (when there’s 3 WR sets) and George Kittle. I’d rather have Kittle given his ceiling and skillset, but he’s also going to be far more popular. Bourne, on the other hand, has been a sneaky play I’ve been recommending all year whenever the Niners meet an opponent that is weak against the slot. It keeps paying off and, given the fact the Niners are more likely to try to move the ball instead of go for a killshot, I like Bourne even more. Don’t get me wrong, I also love Deebo Samuel this week as well. They have shown they will scheme him into the game plan no matter what. If they are rushing, they will run some trick plays where he winds up running the ball in a sweep. He is my overall favorite WR on the Niners and I will also have a ton of him.
On the Chiefs side of the ball, things get a little trickier. I mean, when you are going against one of the best Ds in the NFL – one that is almost fully healthy and has been absolutely dominant the last couple of weeks – that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Still, I consider this to be a matchup between the unstoppable force and the immovable object. Generally, in instances like that, the defence prevails. But we’ve all seen how special Pat Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is, so I am not ruling them out by any stretch. Still, I am picking one story to tell and, if I had to pick that story, it would be that the Chiefs are forced to abandon their normal gunslinging offense for one of precision passing and short plays.
That means a very similar game plan to last week as well. I expect that Mahomes will spend most of the game finding Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as much as he can and, barring that, getting the ball to Sammy Watkins as his tertiary option. However, there’s one thing we need to consider here – as I pointed out earlier, Ward and Breeland have been fantastic this season. If you look at PFF grades, Ward is the highest graded player among KC CBs at 65.9. While that’s good but not great, it’s also not close to any of the Niners CBs – Richard Sherman (88.9) and K’Wuan Williams (77.4) in particular have been wonderful. Sherman covers the right side of the field 98% of the time, which will put him on Tyreek Hill most of the time, while Williams covers the slot, putting him on Sammy Watkins. I am going to try to attack the Niners through their last CB, who should once again be Emmanuel Mosely (who replaced Ahkello Witherspoon). This means one important thing – prioritizing Travis Kelce over the top two WRs.
Now that they’re mainly healthy, the Niners run defense has been absolutely fantastic so far in the playoffs. Against the Vikings and Dalvin Cook, they allowed 21 yards on the ground. Against the Packers and Aaron Jones, they allowed 62 yards. I would say both of those players are better than Damien Williams, and, like those other 2 teams, I expect the Chiefs to be playing from behind here, leaving Williams a less desirable option. He will still get the goal line work, which is random and you can never rule out. He will still get the short passes, which is fantastic on full PPR sites like Draftkings. But, if you are looking at prop bets, odds are good you’ll win if you take the under on Williams’ yards.
My Captain Plays:
Raheem Mostert – My absolute favorite play. According to Awesemo.com’s best-in-the-industry ownership projections, as of right now, Mostert is only projected to be 4% owned in the captain slot on DK and only 6.6% in the MVP slot on FD. If that is actually the case, I plan on winning a ton of money while the field focuses on the wrong plays.
Patrick Mahomes – The smartest thing you can consider when picking a captain is TD share. That means RBs and QBs should be your priority. With SF, I want to pick a RB. For the Chiefs, who have multiple legit receiving threats, I will go with the head of the beast – Mahomes.
My Over the Field UTIL Plays:
Mostert or Mahomes – Whoever isn’t my captain will most certainly be in the UTIL spot
The Tight Ends – When it comes to the pass game, my favorite two options on both teams are TEs. Given the way all the Defensive pieces land, I will have more George Kittle and Travis Kelce than the field, even though I expect the Niners not to do too much passing.
Deebo Samuel – He will be used in the rush game. He will be used in the pass game, even if that pass game isn’t highly relied upon. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are multiple schemed plays specifically for Samuel that the Chiefs can’t stop, and if one of them lands him in the end zone.
Sammy Watkins – On the plays where Sherman and Williams are covering Hill and Kelce, Watkins is going to get the targets. He may not have the biggest TD upside, but he is gold on full PPR sites.
Tevin Coleman – He is going to be underowned because he’s the RB2 and because he’s 6400. But he’s going to play, he’s dynamic, and he’s going to get some looks here. The Niners should be running all game. I will have some Coleman.
The Kickers – I absolutely love both Butker and Gould today. I prefer Gould to Butker by a significant margin, but both have the potential to get plenty of work
Niners D – People are not giving them the respect they’re due. Maybe it’s cause you can’t play them on FD.
Kendrick Bourne – The Slot WR going against a team that’s only really weak against slot WRs and will be trying to move the ball slowly and in spurts. Sounds like a good match to me.
My Under the Field UTIL Plays:
Tyreek Hill – I don’t hate him. I respect his ceiling. But I do expect that Sherman is going to be on him most of this game, and he’s going to make it incredibly tough. I also think his price tag is really high, and he’s going to be super popular, despite the other legitimate options on KC.
Damien Williams – the Niners rush D isn’t a joke. He’s the 3rd most expensive player on the slate, and he’s going to be overowned. I will still have some of him for the reasons I explained above.
Jimmy Garoppolo – For a team that only attempted 8 passes last week, I can’t believe Jimmy G is basically the 2nd most popular player on both sites. Ridiculous.
Emmanuel Sanders – He’s going to see the toughest of the KC D the entire game and they’ve shown a preference for Samuel and Kittle. Plus, Bourne is in too good a spot.
Chiefs D – I like the Niners Offense a lot, and I don’t expect the Chiefs to be able to stop their run game efficiently enough to rack up points.
Deep GPP Options:
Matt Breida – A lot of things would have to go wrong for him to be an actionable play today. But the Niners are going to run it a lot. Crazier things have happened. Especially on a one-game slate.
The Chiefs WR3s – Given how good the SF CBs are, and how much KC should have to throw, they should get some looks. They also have gotten looks in the end zone. So, while they’re not to be trusted, you can certainly have some deep GPP exposure to Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman
Darwin Thompson – The Chiefs RB2. Shouldn’t get more than a handful of attempts (if any), and may not get any more than a couple of yards. But, again, it’s a one-game slate and he’s only 1800. If Williams gets injured, Thompson is going to more than exceed value.
Kyle Juszczyk – Only 1200 and a fullback that might get a target or two. In week 17, he got 5.9 DKP. In week 16, 3.3 DKP. In week 15, 8.7 DKP. In week 14, 5.2 DKP. The Niners like to use a fullback on occasion, and he even has TD upside. It’s not likely. Not likely at all. But, again, he’s 1200.
Blake Bell – The TE2 on the Chiefs. He’s 800. Last week he didn’t see a target, which shouldn’t have come as a shock. However, against the Texans in the Divisional game, he got 2 targets for 15 yards and a TD, which was good for 9.5 DKP. In week 17, he got 1.1 DKP. In 16, he got 3.5 DKP. In 15, he got 6.1 DKP. He isn’t a sure thing, but he’s getting enough work every week that you can take a shot in deep GPPs, again, especially for the price.
Players I am Fading:
LeSean McCoy – He’s not getting any snaps. At all. Don’t be a sucker!
Jeff Wilson Jr – Too far down the depth chart. If Coleman is a shocking scratch, I may have a share or two. But doubtful.