NBA DFS Analysis for February 7, 2020

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Quick Stories

Dallas at Washington – 234 – DAL 118 – WAS 116

One of the best games of the night. Thomas Bryant is out, which should shore up the Washington Center defense (assuming Ian Mahinmi gets the start). Still, Porzingis is the usage monster on Dallas with Luka out, he is underpriced, and he is going overlooked in terms of ownage. Washington is a terrible team that didn’t get any better, and they’ll pull up the pace of Dallas as well. I also want whoever starts at PG – Isaiah Thomas may be gone, but I am still going to count on the terrible D of Ish Smith to help out Jalen Brunson (or JJ Barea). I am going to load up on this game – apart from Porzingis and the starting PG being cash-game caliber plays, you can load up on Curry and Kleber and Hardaway in GPPs, while having some exposure to Delon Wright and DFS. If Porzingis happens to miss, I am going to go nuts on Hardaway and WCS with some Boban as well. 

On the Washington side, if Brunson starts for Dallas, I will be under the field on Ish Smith, who is very popular, and I will take a bunch of Shabazz Napier. If Brunson comes off the bench, I will reverse that. Regardless, the best place to attack Dallas is with SG/Wing players, so feel free to load up on Brad Beal, who is going overlooked today as well. I will also take some shares of Davis Bertans as well, since I expect him to be the secondary scoring option for a majority of this game.

Memphis at Philly – 222.5 – PHI 114 – MEM 108.5

This is not a game I would prioritize. Philly is still a fantastic defensive team, and I don’t expect them to make it easy for any of the Memphis players. With Jae and Hill gone, we should see a bunch of extra minutes going to Marko Guduric and Kyle Anderson, but I don’t really trust either of them. The only other players I plan to have exposure to are Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke, who should do a great job against the 2nd unit. 

On the Philly side, none of their trade pieces are here yet so, since they only really lost James Ennis and Trey Burke, this isn’t going to matter at all. We are going to see the standard Philly attack formation, which means, tonight, relying really heavily on the guards/wing players. My favorites are Tobias Harris, by far, followed by Ben Simmons. If Josh Richardson is back, he will just gum up the works, making the SG players less desirable. If he is out, the usage on Thybulle and Korkmaz aren’t enough to trust them in anything but deep GPPs.

Atlanta at Boston – 232.5 – BOS 121 – ATL 111.5

I don’t expect this game to be close, but there are so, so many injuries and traded players we are going to want to have a bunch of this game anyway. So no Capela or Raddish or Bembry or Skal or Fernando or Walton or Jaylen Brown or Hayward or Theis or Robert Williams. All of these players are out, with Dedmon unlikely to play today as well. This doesn’t leave a ton of options for both teams, so, again, the players that are active, we can count on for minutes and production. 

This means, for me, prioritizing John Collins, who will be facing Enes Kanter for most of this game, and Kanter is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. He should get all the minutes and usage he can handle at a great price. Also, Trae Young is a bit overpriced for the emergence of Jeff Teague’s ballhandling, so I would have some exposure, but be guarded when it comes to Young, while going over the field on Teague. Anyone else on this team, due to the lack of depth, is a legit GPP play for price/opportunity alone

On the Celtics, they are facing an awful defensive team that will not try to stop them in any way, at all. So load up on Jayson Tatum, who should still get a bunch of time at SF against Atlanta, and take Kemba Walker, who will get all the shots he can handle, and should be locked into 10 assists as well. Additionally, count on 30+ minutes and decent usage from Marcus Smart and Enes Kanter, both of whom are fantastic options. No one else on Boston is anything more than a GPP play, but I have no problem taking a deep look at Grant Williams and Javonte Green, though Brad Wanamaker is just too expensive on DK at 4600.

Detroit at OKC – 214.5 – OKC 113.5 – DET 101

This game is also going to get ugly. Detroit has almost no one to play, or anyone worth playing. They traded Drummond away for a couple shitty dudes who won’t be here tonight. Rose is out. Kennard is out. Svi is out. Markieff Morris is out. Khyri Thomas is still out. They basically have 9 players, and 2 of them are Jordan Bone and Louis King. I am not confident in Reggie Jackson. I think they are still going to take it easy on him, and I don’t think he’ll get as many minutes as you would expect. Plus, he will be facing the stellar OKC D. I would have no problem loading up on anyone else from Detroit as GPP plays. In order – Christian Wood, Bruce Brown, Sekou Doubouya, Tony Snell, Langston Galloway, Thon Maker and then Jordan Bone, who should be the only other PG tonight, and may wind up getting 20 or so minutes. He probably won’t do anything with them, but the price and opportunity are right.

On the OKC side, with this being an 8 game slate, I won’t rule out the starters – CP3, SGA, Gallo, and Adams are all too cheap for the upside of going against this horrorshow of a Pistons team, looking to tank as bad as they can, that may be running faster from here on out. But my exposure of them will be limited. I, however, don’t mind taking the backup/blowout players – the best of which is Dennis Schroder, who may be one of my favorite plays of the day, period. He’s not expected to get past 3% ownership and he could go nuts today. I also don’t mind some deeper GPP stabs on Noel and Dort.

Toronto at Indiana – 218.5 – TOR 109.75 – IND 108.75

This is one of the worst games of the night for us. There are very few players here that warrant their price, especially considering the way both of these teams play (in terms of pace and defense). The best play here, by far, is Pascal Siakam who is back up to his 50 DKP/game ways and is still only 7500. That’s way, way too low for him, and you should be well over the field on him at that price. I also have no problem taking some GPP chances on Brogdon at his 6400 price point, and considering that people are off him now cause they think Oladipo is playing more than he is and doing more than he is.

Houston at Phoenix – 234.5 – HOU 118.5 – PHX 116

This is going to be the highest owned game of the day, and I understand why. Westbrook isn’t playing, Capela is gone, and the Rockets are playing a radical new type of small ball (that’s working). That means we can expect Harden to go nuts here, though he’s going to be super popular and will be facing the decent Rubio defense. No one else on Houston is priced nearly high enough for all the usage that still has to go around with Westbrook and Capela out/gone – that means I’ll start with Covington first and primarily, before work on the litany of other GPP-only shooters in House and Gordon and McLemore and Rivers, none of whom I have any real faith in.

On the other side, I am fine with going over the field on all of the Suns stars. This game could go over the 234.5 and it should stay close. NO ONE on this team is expensive enough. I have a lot of faith in Deandre Ayton tonight, taking advantage of the height difference. He’s 8600 and he’s the lowest owned player out of the 4 major stars. After him, I am going to load up on Booker then Oubre then Rubio in that order, as I expect Rubio will have to concern himself with a lot more defense than production today. With all the injuries, don’t ignore Mikal Bridges who is playing more than 40 minutes a game and, while his PPM production isn’t that great, he can still pay off 4900 in that time. 

Miami at Sacramento – 219.5 – SAC 110.5 – MIA 109

This is another one of those games that could be the worst game of the night if not for all the injuries/trade craziness. We are seeing a ton of players out which will dramatically change the nature of this game. I should add, first, that, if you were paying attention at the beginning of the season, Jimmy Butler missed a decent chunk of time. When he did, this heat team played incredibly fast and with significantly worse D. Since he’s come back, we’ve seen the Heat plummet in pace and take off defensively. With Butler out (as well as Meyers Leonard and Tyler Herro), we are going to see an absolute ton of work going to Kendrick Nunn, Bam Adebayo, Gordan Dragic and Derrick Jones. I am going to be over the field on all of these players. Nunn and Dragic will some terrible PG D of Fox, Jones is underpriced and will play a ton of minutes, and Bam’s production should be fantastic as well, though that will depend on how much Richaun Holmes can play. If he’s out, the Kings will have no one even close to being able to defend him.

On the Kings side, everyone is going to be undervalued and underpriced and underowned. Again, I expect that, with Butler out, the Heat will play much faster and with much worse D. So give me almost everyone on this team over the field. My favorite play is De’Aaron Fox, by far, though I am also a big fan of Hield/Bogdan/Bjelica, and will have a bunch of all of them as well.

Portland at Utah – 226.5 – UTA 118 – POR 108.5

The question you have to ask yourself here is: Can history repeat itself? Can Dame Lillard drop another 79 DKP against the fantastic D of Utah at almost no ownership? I tell you what – while I think it’s unlikely (especially given Lillard’s last 2 games), I don’t think it’s impossible, and I would certainly keep him in your player pool if you’re playing multiple lineups. I would increase my exposure to him (and add some extra exposure to CJ McCollum) if Hassan Whiteside is out, while also having increased exposure to Swanigan, though I don’t like that. Still, he’s only 3100 and he should get a ton of C minutes regardless of if this blows out.

On the other side, I don’t like anyone but Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. Conley was back up to 34 minutes last game and got 42 DKP. He’s only 5400 and Portland is a Lock Spot against PGs. Like, really awful. They are also a Lock Spot against Bigs, so feel free to also take a too-cheap Gobert at only 7700. Especially if it’s down to Swanigan.