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NBA Quick Hits for August 11, 2020

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bathrobeDFS here with your daily analysis.

I will work through every game, analyzing any and all relevant data I can muster with regards to how they will perform in a DFS capacity.

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Quick Analysis

BK “at” ORL – 1pm

Info

Vegas Total:   219 – ORL 111.75 – BK 107.25

Injuries – BK:    Joe Harris – OUT / Caris LeVert – OUT / Jarrett Allen – OUT / Garrett Temple – OUT / Crawford – OUT 

Injuries – ORL:   Evan Fournier – OUT / Aaron Gordon – OUT / Terrence Ross – OUT / MCW – OUT

Pace – BK:   10th – 101.4

Pace – ORL:   26th – 98.5

Quick Hits

  • Welcome to the time of year when luck can matter more than skill some days. Like the clusterfuck of yesterday which still has me angry and upset. Especially given I was almost all in on Ayton and other players who got scratched/limited late. It’s the end of the season, like I said yesterday. People are giving less effort and are much more concerned with staying healthy.
  • Take this game – Brooklyn has clinched the 7 seed and Orlando is the 8. No matter what happens they are stuck there. So basically, this game doesn’t matter at all.
  • That’s why half of both of these teams aren’t playing. And why I’m not gonna be spending up on anyone here, regardless of how great the matchup is.
  • So no Vucevic for me. I know he got 38 minutes last game. But one of the highest owned players of the day and I am not going to take that chance
  • Everyone else is 5100 or under. Feel free to have a decent amount of those players, cause they will play a lot and all the pace stats don’t mean anything here
  • If we go by price and predicted usage, my favorite cheap Nets today are, in order, TLC (3600), Jeremiah Martin (3400), Justin Anderson (3000), Chris Chiozza (4400), Rodions Kurucs (4100), Dzanan Musa (3000)
  • If we go by price and predicted usage, my favorite Magic players are Markelle Fultz (4600), Gary Clark (3400), Wes Iwundu (3200), , Khem Birch (3300), James Ennis (4300). Any of these would be fine plays, though. Fultz, coming off the 44 DKP game, would be my favorite play of the bunch though. If they are going to rest the starters, he should be able to take a step up and command usage for a large portion of the game.
  • Just know there are going to be a million players just like this today, and winning a tournament is going to be getting incredibly lucky and, probably, leaving some money on the table, as bench dudes that get minutes outscore stars that play limited time. 

HOU “at” SA – 2pm 

Info

Vegas Total:   234 – HOU 117.75 – SA 116.25

Injuries – HOU:    James Harden – OUT / Gordon – OUT / House – QUESTIONABLE

Injuries – SA:   Forbes – OUT / Lyles – OUT / White – QUESTIONABLE

Pace – HOU:   3rd – 103.5

Pace – SA:   14th – 100.3

Quick Hits

  • I have absolutely no problem going with Westbrook today, as his usage without Harden is tremendous, and he could exceed value on his salary even if he plays limited minutes. On top of that, as I often say, the smaller the position you play the better off you are against SA, so he’s in the best spot on top of everything else. He’s going to be chalk and he has nothing to play for, but he’s one of the guys I don’t mind taking a risk on. 
  • Everyone on the Rockets will see a massive usage increase with Harden out (obviously). We see almost all of them priced up, but that doesn’t really bother me. I am fine with running out the same cheaper players as last game, knowing they won’t be limited and they will play at an even faster pace. So yeah, feel free to go back to Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore and Danuel House if he plays. Maybe we will get lucky and the 4k price tags will keep people off. Jeff Green is the only other player on this team I think is underpriced enough to target, but he’s strictly GPP only
  • Anyone else is priced fairly, even for Harden being out. 
  • On SA, I will base my interest on the status of Derrick White. SA is one of 4 teams that are fighting for the play-in game in the WC, so my interest in them is already high. If White is out, my interest will be even higher, and more consolidated. 
  • I think DeMar DeRozan is a fine cash play, but he hasn’t shown any upside. And his 8k price is fair.
  • Dejounte Murray is great and is cheap at 6200. He does cede a lot of usage over to Derrick White, though. So my interest in him will be moderate is White plays and high is White is out
  • Rudy Gay has been on a tear lately. His last 3 games he’s put up 42, 33.75, and 37.75 DKP. They are leaning on him and I have no problem doing the same at 5800. Again, even more if Derrick White is out. 
  • Everyone else on the Spurs is more spotty. White, I don’t trust will be fully recovered if he plays. Pop keeps resting the cheap backups randomly, so we don’t know if Mills or Belinelli will even see the floor, regardless of if White plays. Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson have been consistent, but saw their prices come up to fair levels. 
  • Deep GPP: Drew Eubanks. Got 24 minutes last game and put up 33.75 DKP. I doubt they’ll need him in a game with a tiny Houston team, though. 

PHX “at” PHI – 430pm 

Info

Vegas Total:   224.5 – PHX 115 – PHI 108.5

Injuries – PHX:    Aron Baynes – QUESTIONABLE

Injuries – PHI:   Simmons – OUT / Richardson – OUT / Tobias Harris – QUESTIONABLE / Horford – QUESTIONABLE / Embiid – OUT

Pace – PHX:   9th – 101.4

Pace – PHI:   19th – 99.0

Quick Hits

  • Devin Booker is one of my favorite plays on the day. Phoenix is fighting as hard as they can for a playoff spot. 6-0 since the restart and now only 0.5 back from the 9 seed and 1 game back from the 8 seed. If Memphis or Portland lose today and they win, they are in the playoffs. If that happens it will be on the back of an 8800 Booker, who once again gets the luxury of a team resting almost all their good players. My only concern for Booker and the only thing that keeps me off 100% ownership is Phoenix may blow this out. It all depends on if Harris and Horford also sit out. 
  • Feel free to load up on other Phoenix players that get some shots. Namely Cam Johnson, Cam Payne, DeAndre Ayton and, to a lesser degree, Dario Saric and Mikal Bridges.
  • Rubio isn’t getting the usage cause of Booker. 
  • Ayton may be one of the sneakiest plays of the day. At 7900 against a severely kneecapped Philly Center D. If Horford sits, I may have to think about going as hard on Ayton as yesterday, in hopes people will avoid him today cause of it. 
  • I am not playing any expensive Philly player, even if Horford and/or Harris play. I don’t trust their minutes, even if they get some.
  • That means loading up on cheap Sixers players that will get usage. In order, when considering price and predicted usage, I would take: Alec Burks (4300), Furkan Korkmaz (3000), Thybulle (3200), Raul Neto (3000), O’Quinn (3000), Mike Scott (3600), and Robinson (3800). Though I will say the same thing I said for the ORL/BK teams – the gap between these dudes is very small. Apart from Burks who I like more than the rest. 

BOS “at” MEM – 5pm 

Info

Vegas Total:   224.5 – BOS 114.5 – MEM 110 (225 – BOS 114.5 – MEM 110.5)

Injuries – BOS:    Theis – PROBABLE

Injuries – MEM:   Tyus Jones – OUT / JJJ – OUT

Pace – BOS:   17th – 99.5

Pace – MEM:   6th – 102.8

Quick Hits

  • If Boston was going to rest people, they should have started doing it last game. Instead, they played everyone like normal. That means that, while I will be wary and cautious of it, I will be playing Boston like normal here. 
  • That means, if we can count on 35 or so minutes from these Celtics players, against a Memphis team that plays at an incredibly fast pace, and adds value to every position, at these low prices. We may have to jump on it. Unless we hear otherwise. And especially given how low projected ownership here is. 
  • Tatum (7800) is my favorite, with the most upside and an amazing matchup. He has shown real hit or miss stuff though, so be careful. He could get you 55 or 25 DKP. I will bet on 55.
  • Brown (7100) and Hayward (7000) are similarly priced with similar projections and similar upsides. Brown has the easier matchup, but either are good plays here.
  • Kemba Walker (6500) has my favorite matchup here, but he is still rusty and getting back into game shape. Even playing 32 minutes, taking him will be a GPP play, at best. If you think this is the game he puts it all together (and the Grizzlies are a great team against which to do it), feel free to load up. But I will focus on the other 3 big producers here. 
  • Everyone else on the Celtics are GPP stabs at best, and no one I would full throatedly recommend. 
  • On the other side, Memphis could be out of the playoffs if they lose today. So they are going to be going as hard as they can. That means feel free to load up on these dudes, even though they face a tough Boston team, and have not been playing well. I will be cautious here but, if the field is off Memphis, it would make sense to take the chance. 
  • The problem, apart from Boston being a great team with great defense, is that no one on Memphis is priced in a way that stands out. So feel free to take anyone, but don’t think that anyone is priced at a tremendous discount. That means starting with the two biggest threats – Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas. JoVal had been performing well before running headfirst into the Raptors Center D. Morant, at 8300, is priced really well and, as much as I love him as a player, will be tough to trust here. He would need to get 50 DKP at least to hit what I want, and I don’t know if he’s gonna do that without OT or his shot falling at much higher levels than normal
  • The people I like most on Memphis are the midpriced/cheap guys that have shown some flashes of production. In order of preference, that would be Dillon Brooks (5400), who has gotten 37 and 41 DKP in his last 2 games; Grayson Allen (4300), who has ~24+ DKP in 4 of his last 5 games; and Brandon Clarke (5000), who is the riskiest, but is coming off his first good post-JJJ game, scoring 32.25 DKP, and he may try to stay hot.

POR “at” DAL – 630pm 

Info

Vegas Total:   236.5 – POR 119.75 – DAL 116.75

Injuries – POR:    Whiteside – PROBABLE

Injuries – DAL:   Doncic – PROBABLE / DFS – Probable / Porzingis – PROBABLE

Pace – POR:   13th – 100.6

Pace – DAL:   18th – 99.4

Quick Hits

  • This is the game, and I am going to go super, super heavy here. There is more than enough value to get Booker, Lillard, and Doncic and I want to do that. I will add Porzingis if I can. And more. 
  • Dallas is trying to move up so they can face the injured Nuggets instead of the Clippers. Even though they are locked into the playoffs, they want to win this. Even after resting people last game (a game they still won)
  • Portland is in the 9 seed right now. If they lose, they could get jumped by Phoenix, who would move into the 8 seed, Memphis the 9, and Portland would fall #10. So Portland needs to win this game (like every other), and they will keep running these guys into the ground. 
  • Gimme all the Doncic and Lillard as I can fit into my lineups. I believe the scientific term for my exposure today would be “a fuckload.” A fully overflowing fuckbucket of exposure. I can’t stress that enough. 
  • Lillard is in tier 1. Doncic and Booker are tier 2. 
  • One thing – it’s very rare that CJ McCollum and Dame have a good game at the same time. So I will not play both. But if you don’t play Dame, play CJ. One of them is going to get 50+ DKP today. At least 50+ DKP. 
  • I like Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis more the longer they have red O’s next to their names on DK. 
  • Porzingis and Jusuf Nurkic are tier 3 for me. I wouldn’t mind fitting them in, but I would rather have the 3 big guys I mentioned earlier. Portland is a lock spot against PF/C so Porzingis especially lines up spectacularly well
  • I am fine with going over the field on Carmelo who has shown you he doesn’t mind going out there for 37 minutes and shooting until his heart’s content. If he wants to keep putting up between 30-35 DKP, and DK wants to keep him around 5500, I will keep going over on him. 
  • Gary Trent has finally cooled down and his price has come up. Seems like a great GPP play, but don’t expect success here. Lillard is going to try and control this game. And if not him, CJ. 
  • I don’t know if there’s enough usage left on Dallas to go around to anyone else, especially with their prices bumped up from last game. 
  • Like I told you yesterday, though, if you think Boban is going to get 15 minutes or more, you have to play him 100%. He gives you no other choice. I hope you listened to me yesterday, will listen today, and in the future. Boban is a fucking monster. He just doesn’t get minutes, and can’t be trusted to get them either 

NO “at” SAC – 9pm 

Info

Vegas Total:   230.5 – PICK EM

Injuries – NO:    Jrue – OUT / Ingram – OUT / Zion – OUT

Injuries – SAC:   Fox – OUT / Holmes – OUT / Bazemore – QUESTIONABLE

Pace – NO:   2nd – 103.8

Pace – SAC:   20th – 98.8

Quick Hits

  • This game means nothing. NO and SAC were both eliminated. That’s why the 4 most expensive players, and 5 starters, are not playing today. And why you can’t really trust the other starters to play a normal amount of minutes. I mean, if they’re resting everyone else, what makes you think Lonzo Ball is going to get 35 minutes??
  • If I’m going to go anywhere here, it’s to the backup players. That means, as much as I fucking hate myself, my favorite play is going to be Buddy Hield, going against his old team, at 4800. 
  • My second favorite play, though, would be Cory Joseph (3700) who is way too cheap for the minutes and production he will get with Fox out. 
  • I also love JJ Redick (4300), Josh Hart (4100), and Nicolo Melli (3900).
  • There are going to be a couple other players from this game that destroy their value.
  • The question is who? I would say, if we are going into the 3rd stringers and young kids getting time today, the most likely players to produce are: Alex Len (3500), Nickael Alexander-Walker (3200), Kenrich Williams (3100), E’Twaun Moore (3300), Jaxson Hayes (3400), Harry Giles (3200), Daquan Jeffries (3100), and Frank Jackson (3100). As much as I love some players (like Giles), I don’t think they will get minutes regardless. And some players (like Moore) may get minutes, but do very little producing with them. 
  • Unfortunately as much as I like this game, I fear the stars that are left are going to be far too owned, and the kids and backups that play are going to be governed by randomness to too much of a degree.

MIL “at” WSH – 9pm 

Info

Vegas Total:   229.5 – MIL 119.25 – WSH 110.25

Injuries – MIL:    Eric Bledsoe – DOUBTFUL / Wes Matthews – DOUBTFUL / Middleton – DOUBTFUL / Giannis – PROBABLE / Brook Lopez – DOUBTFUL / George Hill – DOUBTFUL / Korver – DOUBTFUL / Marvin Williams – DOUBTFUL

Injuries – WSH:   Napier – QUESTIONABLE / Matthews – OUT

Pace – MIL:   1st – 105.1

Pace – WSH:   7th – 102.7

Quick Hits

  • Ugh. I wish I didn’t have to write this game up. Or that it didn’t exist. 
  • Basically, Giannis is “playing”(??) and no one else on this team is. So, he will control the floor when he’s on it, but he may only play 15 minutes.
  • The Bucks remaining players will be Donte DiVincenzo, PatCon, Robin Lopez, Frank Mason, Sterling Brown, CJ Wilson, Ersan Ilyasova, and T. Antetokounmpo. 
  • DiVincenzo is the most expensive player at 3900. These are the some of the best value plays of the day
  • In order of preference, given usage and minutes and all that: DiVincenzo, Ilyasova, PatCon, Frank Mason, Robin Lopez, DJ Wilson, Thanasis, Sterling Brown. 
  • Washington should have an easier time against a fast team that will be without all it’s good players (minus Giannis). That means I have no problem loading up here. My order of preference, given usage and minutes, is: Troy Brown, Bryant, Ish Smith, Robinson, Hachimura, Bonga. If Napier plays, I would put him above Robinson. If Napier is out, I would put Jerian Grant in front of Hachimura.
  • Either way, this game is going to be a shitty game but a fantasy bonanza.

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