bathrobeDFS – NBA Analysis for October 27, 2019

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily ? analysis.

I will work through every game, analyzing any and all relevant data I can muster with regards to how they will perform in a DFS capacity. I will start every game off with a shortened preview of both teams, and some relevant stats that will help you make your decisions.

It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! Let’s get started with the Analysis!

Vegas Lines ?

  • 223 – GS 112 – OKC 111
  • 224 – BK 114.5 – MEM 109.5
  • 224 – MIN 115.5 – MIA 108.5
  • 220.5 – DAL 111.5 – POR 109
  • 216.5 – LAL 114.75 – CHA 101.75

Advantage Situations ?

On the Showdown Slate

There are a few places here I’d really like to attack, so let’s go over why. First, Kevon Looney has been ruled out for the foreseeable future. With WIllie Caulie-Stein and rookie Alen Smailagic also out, the Warriors have no real Cs left. This will force the Warriors to either play small (at which point Danilo Gallinari would dominate whoever they throw at PF), or they spend the whole game using a rotation of Draymond Green, Marquese Chris, Omari Spellman, and Eric Paschall manning the 2 spots This should mean massive minutes for all 4, and all 4 are dramatically undervalued on this one-game slate for that fact. Chriss and Spellman, especially, are under 3k and can help you fit in the stars you want.

So who do you play? Well, it’s clear that Chris Paul has been relegated to support/defense duty. Which is fine, because he excels at that. That means a couple things, though – First, that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to continue to produce like an all-star at a price that’s not quite in line  with that fact. Second, that Steph Curry should have a harder than normal time of it, again. I mean, it’s possible that D’Angelo Russell winds up seeing more CP3, so I wouldn’t do a hard fade on any of them. I just think it’s more likely that Russell gets the much easier defense of SGA, and will continue to excel in that regard.

OKC bigs are more interesting. Danilo Gallinari should either have an advantageous matchup against Chriss, Spellman or Paschall most of the game, he would absolutely dominate if the Warriors try to slide a SF over to the 4. I have no problem taking that bet, considering he is overwhelmingly the #2 option on this team when it comes to looks. Stephen Adams is right out. Dray is a fantastic defender and he’s not tasked to do enough anyway. Mike Muscala is one of the few true bigs they have to back up Gallo and Adams, and he’s only 2200. He’s gotten 12 and 16 minutes in the Thunder’s 2 games and, while he hasn’t done a lot, you don’t have to do much at 2200. 

I am also going to avoid Dennis Schroder. He just isn’t getting the time on the floor where he’s the big fish anymore. He keeps moving down to the 2 or 3 option, and he’s just not doing a lot with it. When his price comes down, maybe he’ll be something more than a GPP play.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie is overwhelmingly the top option on this Nets team. If he’s in the game, he is going to have the ball in his hands and, odds are, he’s going to shoot or be on the line for an assist. He is still at least 1000 too cheap for his role on this team, and all that is ignoring the fact that this is a Memphis team that’s been playing a lot faster this season. That’s actually understating it – while the sample size is admittedly small, the Grizzlies have run at the 3rd fastest pace in the NBA. Add to that the fact that the Nets are running 4th fastest and you have a slate where Kyrie should almost certainly be one of the top scorers and, given the fact he’s sitting next to Lebron, I don’t expect his ownership to be nearly high enough. 

The only other places on the Nets you’re getting enough of a value to consider is with Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris. Dinwiddie owns usage in the 2nd unit, and he should continue to be an amazing PPM producer all season, even if he’s only getting 20-25 minutes. Harris is a fantastic 3-point shooter, but depends largely on a hot hand. If his shot isn’t falling today, his floor will be incredibly low. If he comes out hot against a fast team with bad D, he will easily get you 6x value on that 4700

Jaren Jackson Jr

There are a few places on this Memphis team that are worth a look most games, especially if this Grizzlies team is going to look more like last year’s Hawks. So far this year, it does. A dominant young PG, Ja Morant, coming out of the gate getting his feet under him but still performing and  showing glimpses of greatness? Sounds like it. An incredibly talented young PF, Jaren Jackson Jr., that has gone largely ignored by fantasy players due to the terrible team he’s on? Yep. Running at an incredibly fast pace, playing horrid D? You know it. Backed up by  similarly mediocre players, capable of a low floor and an occasional breakout game? Absolutely But, for the most part, the usage and the production are going to come down to those 2 dudes. 

If you remember last year, it took until a little after the all-star break for Trae Young to snap into superstar form, while Collins was the dominant offensive force on that team. This year, I expect much of the same – growing pains for Morant, where he will have some great games and some stinkers for a couple months, and a chain of dominance for JJJ until them. He’s 6500 and he’s an 8k a game talent. 

If you’re looking for some value, the Grizzlies are great for that too. Jae Crowder is 4400 and averaging almost 30 DKP a game so far. Kyle Anderson is finally healthy, playing about 20 minutes a game, and giving you over 20 DKP for 3500. They also have Dillon Brooks at 3600 who can get you anywhere from 20-30 minutes a game. His PPM will fluctuate wildly, but you can’t go wrong with the minutes and the across-the-board production he gives you in that time.

The Heat Injury Parade

This isn’t a bad Heat team if everyone’s healthy, but we haven’t seen that yet. As it stands, Jimmy Butler will be OUT. Dion Waiters will be OUT. James Johnson will be OUT. Udonis Haslem will be OUT. and Derrick Jones Jr. will be OUT (though he’s currently “Doubtful”). This leaves only 11 healthy bodies on this Heat team, meaning all the minutes that some people can handle. We also have a great indication of where those minutes are going to go, and who is going to do the most with it

First, Kendrick Nunn should be a lock for you today. Maybe not 100% of your lineups, but certainly, like, 80% of them. Dude is putting up some INSANE production with everyone else out. The only thing that’s been stopping him so far is foul trouble. If he can relax the foul issues, he could go for 30 real points today and upwards of 45-50 DKP. That’s almost 10x value. Do not sleep on him. 

Second, Goran Dragic. After DJJ went down, they shifted Justise Winslow over and let Dragic run the point. He got hot and really produced. With the team short, I expect Dragic to once again get some serious minutes running the point with Winslow moving down to the frontcourt. He is only 100 more than Nunn, at 5400.

Third, Tyler Herro. He’s taking a bit of a back seat to Nunn and/or Dragic the last couple games, but he’s still a fantastic bet for production. He is slightly more expensive than the other 2 dudes I mentioned with a slightly lower ceiling/PPM, so he’s a worse play overall. But he’s still a great value and I definitely get why you’d want to have a bunch of him. 

With RoCo and decent defenders guarding the front court, I will avoid any of the myriad bigs on the Heat that split minutes and usage, and focus on the too-cheap guards.

Trail Blazers vs Mavericks

f you are looking for the best game to stack, this should be it. We have a couple of good offenses with highly consolidated production and without the necessary defensive pieces to stop them. That makes this one really easy.

On the Mavs, almost all the production is going to come through Luka Doncic. With a lot of focus on LeBron and Kyrie, he may go under the radar, but he’s still a threat for a 30 real point triple double any time he takes the court. Depending on how ownership looks, I may have to pivot to have a lot of Doncic. Behind him, Kristaps Porzingis is, for good reason, the man. Dude is like 16 feet tall. He can stand at half court and slam dunk because his arms are so long. Unfortunately, he’s made of glass, but, while healthy, he glimmers and shines and is beautiful to watch. This is especially so with Dwight Powell still out and Boban a persona non grata. 

Dallas has a couple of fantastic punt priced plays, as well. First, Dorian Finney-Smith has seen 32 and 22 minutes in his 2 games so far, and he’s gotten you 24 and 19 DKP. Somehow, his price has fallen to the bare minimum at 3k. PLAY DORIAN FINNEY-SMITH TODAY PERIOD. Second, Jalen Brunson is another player that’s dominating the 2nd unit and getting consistent minutes in the mid-20s. He is averaging 25 DKP and he’s only 4000. Lastly, while he is a lot more risky (and is a more inconsistent floor/ceiling play), Delon Wright is coming off a 43 DKP game and he’s still only 5k. 

ON the Blazers Side,  so far this season, production has started with newly acquired Center Hassan Whiteside. Given the fact that the Mavs are going to be considerably weaker against Center than the guards, I think it’s a safe bet to start your Blazers exposure with Whiteside. Most people will instinctively go with Dame Lillard and CJ McCollum. Both are fine plays, but will have a much tougher day, and will also eat into each other’s production. If Whiteside just gets his average DKP today, he’s at 6x value. Do not sleep on him. He will go grossly underowned (as will most of this game). 

Value on the Blazers comes down to 2 veterans getting a ton of run in the 2nd unit – Kent Bazemore and Rodney Hood. Neither should be considered more than GPP plays, but both are 4200 with easy 30 DKP upside in an easy matchup against a weak Mavs forward defense.

Areas of Caution ⚠


So, if you read these articles, you know I love KAT because I’m not an idiot. But I also know this is a far tougher game than he’s seen so far against a defensive-minded squad that plays the game slow. On top of that, the T-Wolves should be able to take advantage of the continued absence of Jimmy Butler (and several others) to ensure this game doesn’t stay close. Listen, I get it. The other day, KAT put up 82 DKP in 27 minutes. He didn’t play the 4th quarter due to a blowout and he was still the top raw producer on the slate. It’s possible he does that again. But it’s also possible he gets you 50 DKP and is grossly outpaced by a couple of other big stars I want significantly more. The Heat Center D is light years better than the Hornets and Nets and that alone should give you some pause when figuring out where to spend that 10k. 

I don’t mind assuming most of the Wolves starters are fairly priced and won’t give you much in terms of value. There are a couple of backups, though, that have no business being that cheap. First, Shabazz Napier, coming off a 30 DKP performance, is still only 3200. Some of that had to do with a blowout, sure, but he’s still going to be the 6th man, and still get a ton of usage in the 2nd unit. Also, it looks like Josh Okogie and Treveon Graham have been given some real responsibility, though I think they will eat into each other’s production (which has to go through Napier anyway).

Lakers vs Hornets

Right now, the Lakers are 15 point favorites, and the Hornets have the lowest Vegas projection so far this season – no one has seen a Vegas projection under 102 until now. I know the Hornets came out hot. I know they came out even hotter against the Wolves last game. But that game got so out of hand so quickly, the starters didn’t have to play the 4th quarter. This is a Lakers team that would destroy Minnesota. The Hornets are in a ton of trouble. 

I want to briefly talk about a quick game theory point – predicting blow outs. A lot of people say “you can’t predict a blowout” and that’s true. You can’t really predict anything. If you could, you’d be a millionaire and you wouldn’t be reading this. If ANYONE could, they would be banned from sports gambling, and we would know their name. All we can do is take the information in front of us and come to the best conclusions we can. Sometimes, that is a minutes limit in an otherwise fantastic matchup due to not having to play the 4th quarter. What we need to do, to be smart fantasy players, is combine that with game theory. Let’s look at how:

If there is a 10 game slate and one of those games is universally accepted to be a blow out, we can guess that the game in question will see drastically limited ownership. After all, if you don’t want to play the players cause of blow out, you can count on a ton of other people feeling the same way. However, you really can’t predict a blowout. Look at PHX/LAC yesterday. In that situation, where there is a game with some great potential production that no one will be on due to fear of a blowout, it would make sense from a game theory sense to be OVER THE FIELD on that game in GPPs. You want to capture production that no one else has and avoid bad plays that people are on. 

This leads me to something lot of people don’t talk about – the reverse of that situation. What if it’s a really small slate, like today. And one of those games is going to have some incredibly chalky players in it, like LeBron today. But there’s also an incredibly good chance the game is out of hand before the end of the 3rd quarter? Well, in that case, game theory would tell you to actually predict the blowout and fade the popular plays. With fewer options, people are going to take less of a stand on a blow out, meaning factoring that in could give you significant advantage over the field.  Again, the end result is the same – you want to avoid popular plays with massive roadblocks and try to find underrepresented plays that the field is ignoring. Tonight, I expect the sound strategy is to find the underrepresentation in the POR/DAL game while the field goes way, way too hard on this game.

That being said, there are a couple of plays here I really like. First, Anthony Davis is either my favorite or second favorite play on the whole slate. I explained a couple days ago how “play whatever C is going against the Hornets” will become the meta before too long. Look at the PPM KAT just got on them. Brow could do even better than that and, if this does stay close, Brow could be the first 100 DKP play of the year. Still, he should be incredibly popular and there is a chance he doesn’t play the 4th quarter. Also, Brow will spend some good time at PF with JaVale McGee manning the 5 (making him a great GPP play). LeBron is a safe play, but without the ceiling of Brow in this matchup. I also expect him to be far, far too popular for the situation, and for the fact that Kyrie and Doncic exist. The rest of the Lakers are defensively minded players, which will give them highly variable games – like I explained, there will be enough production for Brow and Lebron and one other player every game. You can take a chance on if it’s Danny Green or Alex Caruso or Avery Bradley. I don’t have much faith in any of them. 

The Hornets, on the other hand, have seen their starters prices correct very quickly. So much so I see very little in terms of value to take advantage of. Especially considering how good the defense is. LeBron should shut down Terry Rozier. Green and Bradley will give Bacon and Bridges fits. PJ Washington looks like a fantastic talent, but he can’t matchup against Brow, especially with his price going over 6k. The most intriguing play among starters is the returning Cody Zeller, who draws a cream matchup against the awful McGee defense. The only other player on the Hornets really worth a serious look is Devonte’ Graham, who has put up 42.5 and 34 DKP in his 2 games so far this season. His price is only 4600, but he should be reasonably popular. Still, I think he gets a ton of 2nd unit run/usage, and will see most of the 4th quarter after this game gets out of hand.

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Check out the Preview I did on ALL 30 TEAMS.