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NFL Analysis for Week 16 – Saturday Trifecta

BathrobeDFS here with your NFL analysis for Week 16 – Saturday Trifecta. I will work through all three games, analyzing any and all relevant data I can muster with regards to how they will perform in a DFS capacity. So let’s get deep into it!

Hello everyone! ?

bathrobeDFS here with your analysis for Week 16 in the NFL. I will work through all three games, analyzing any and all relevant data I can muster with regards to how they will perform in a DFS capacity. So let’s get deep into it!

? Houston Texans (9-5) at TB Buccaneers (7-7)
? Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)
? LA Rams (8-6) at SF 49ers (11-3)

One note before we begin: Make sure you are joining us on Flick. We are chatting, in great detail, about NFL picks, as well as how we think the regular season is going to play itself out. Head to http://flickapp.com/, download the app on your phone, and then search by the codeword “bathrobedfs.” If you are having any issues, send me a tweet @bathrobeDFS and we will work it out!

Be sure to also throw me a follow @bathrobeDFS on twitter. I post a bunch of analysis and legit fantasy stuff there (especially for slates/games I can’t write up)

As always, this will update automatically as I type my analysis up, so check back often! If it’s not written yet, it will be!

Offensive Injuries to Monitor ?
(officially posted Thursday)

HOU – Will Fuller V (WR) – Limited in Practice. Should Play
HOU – Carlos Hyde (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
HOU – Darren Fells (TE) – Limited in Practice. Should Play
TB – Chris Godwin (WR) – DOUBTFUL
TB – Jameis Winston (QB) – Limited in Practice. Should Play
NE – Julian Edelman (WR) – Limited in Practice. Should Play
LAR – Gerald Everett (TE) – Full Practice Participant

? Houston Texans (9-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)

Saturday, 1pm

Vegas Info (Wednesday Night) – O/U 49.5 – HOU 26.25 – TB 23.25

Vegas Info (Thursday Night) – O/U – 

Vegas Info (Friday Night) – O/U – 

The Story ?

Oooooh boy. A 3 game slate. I love this so much.Long form analysis is most useful on slates like this, as you saw on Thanksgiving. In this first game, what we need to do is clear as day – load up. Let’s take a look why:

First, the TB defense has been the best in the game against the run, and mediocre against the pass in every way. While none of their corners have been among the worst in the league, they have all been below average this season. That means that, no matter where Nuk Hopkins is lined up, he’s going to be able to eat. With how strong TB is against the run, I am fine with loading up on Nuk as your highest owned WR today. If not him, loading up on Will Fuller. If not him, Kenny Stills. No matter what, I am going to be loading up on Deshaun Watson and his entire corps of receivers

As far the RB game, I need to see what the status of Carlos Hyde is. Let me be clear, I will almost certainly be under the field on RBs no matter what, but, should Hyde be out, I would have to take Duke Johnson in GPPs at his price, at least. He should get near bellcow usage and he’s only 4100. Still, TB is awesome against the run and, if Hyde is out, he’s going to be chalk.

On the other side of the ball, we are seeing a Houston defense that is the 6th worst in the league overall. They are 6th worst against the pass and middle-of-the-pack against the run. With the Bucs playing from behind today, I expect them to want to lean on the pass anyway. This means, with Godwin and Evans out, we are going to want to load up on Breshad Perriman fresh off his 3 TD game, as well as Justin Watson, OJ Howard and Cameron Brate. I don’t mind taking a punt on Ishmael Hyman at min price either, but I expect the Bucs to run a lot more 2 WR/2 TE sets, giving a ton of extra targets to the 2 WRs and TEs that, by far, have the highest skill ceiling left on this team.

OTF Plays (over the field)

  • Texans Pass Game – This means I am going to have a fuckload of Deshaun Watson, Nuk Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills. These are some of the best options on this 3 game slate. This is certainly the best game, and the one most likely to turn into a shootout. Watson is going to forced to throw it constantly, and none of these WRs will have anyone that can match up with them.
  • TB Pass Game – Like the Bucs, the Texans are significantly better against the run. On top of that, I expect them to play from behind, meaning relying more on the pass. This means loading up on Jameis Winston, Breshad Perriman (who will be the highest owned player on this slate), OJ Howard, Cameron Brate, and Justin Watson

? GPP Options (guaranteed prize pool)

  • Ishmael Hyman – Min priced WR3 for TB
  • Texans TEs – They don’t get looked at much if there’s not great coverage on the WRs. But, still, given how much they’ll have to throw, I don’t mind taking a GPP stab on Fells or Akins. Especially at their prices.
  • Duke Johnson – ONLY IF CARLOS HYDE IS OUT.
  • Ronald Jones and Dare Ogunbowale – While Peyton Barber was supposed to be the pass catching RB, Jones and Ogunbowale have emerged as the 2 players that have been used the most in the pass game. With Evans and Godwin out, and TB behind, I wouldn’t be shocked if these dudes get a bunch of extra work. They are cheap enough that, on a 3 game slate, that PPR upside could make all the difference.

? UTF Plays (under the field)

  • Houston RBs – If Carlos Hyde plays
  • The Defenses – I think this game goes over 50 points. The Texans 3200 price point is especially high given how bad they’ve been
  • Peyton Barber – Not getting enough looks anywhere.

? Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)

Sunday, 430pm

Vegas Info (Wednesday Night) – O/U 37.5 – NE 22 – BUF 15.5

Vegas Info (Thursday Night) – O/U – 

Vegas Info (Friday Night) – O/U – 

The Story ?

When this team matched up in week 4, the Pats eked out a 16-10 win, making me think that the 37.5 total might be a little high. Very little has changed since then. It’s sill Brady/Michel/White/Burkhead/Edelman/Dorsett for NE, with Josh Gordon being swapped out for Mohamed Sanu. For Buffalo, It’s still Allen/Gore/Beasley/Brown/Knox, but now we have Singletary and Kroft added to the mix. While Singletary is the RB1 for Buffalo, clearly, it will make little difference today. I expect this to be a defensive-minded game and, on a 3 game slate, I expect almost everyone on both teams to be well overowned.

The Patriots D is #1 in the game. They are 1st against the pass and 7th against the run. There’s not much there to attack. I mean, against the left side of the field, the Pats are 2nd best, against the right side of the field, the Pats are 2nd best and, against the slot, the Pats are 4th best. That’s staggering. No matter how you stack it Josh Allen is going to have a hard time getting the pass game going. I don’t mind having some John Brown and Cole Beasley, given how many targets they get, but these plays are GPP, at best, and should still be overowned.

My favorite play on Buffalo is the new guy – Devin Singletary. 2 weeks ago, against a similarly stout Ravens D, Singletary saw 8 targets and caught 6 passes. Granted, he only got 29 yards out of that. But he still put up 17.8 DKP without getting a touchdown. At 5500, and without significant ownership, Singletary is someone I will be having a fair share of. I expect him to get nearly 10 targets again and, especially in PPR

On the other side of the ball, the Bills D is 4th best in the NFL. They show pretty significant splits, though, ranking 3rd best against the pass and 19th best against the run. Clearly, if you are trying to attack the Bills, the best way is going to be on the ground. That’s even better for a Pats team that is supposed to be in the lead. So, while I will have some Brady and Edelman and Sanu and the rest of those pass catchers, I will focus my ownership here on James White, who should get some extra receptions, and Sony Michel, who would still get a majority of the rushes and the goal line work.

OTF Plays (over the field)

  • The Running Backs – I am going to have a lot of Singletary, Michel, and White today
  • The Defenses – This is going to be a low scoring game, and I expect both Defenses to have a good chance of paying off, even though both teams should try to keep it on the ground for the most part.

? GPP Options (guaranteed prize pool)

  • Josh Allen – He does enough on the ground, I have no problem taking a GPP chance on him, although it does come with some risk.

? UTF Plays (under the field)

  • The Rest of This Game – Yeah. If I was playing 1 lineup, I would have no problem avoiding the passing attacks from both games. If I was playing multiple lineups, I would have some Brady and Edelman and Beasley but, on a 3 game slate, I expect them to be way too popular for a game that could come in 10-15 points under the other 2.

? Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Sunday, 815pm

Vegas Info (Wednesday Night) – O/U 45.5 – SF 26 – LAR 19.5

Vegas Info (Thursday Night) – O/U – 

Vegas Info (Friday Night) – O/U – 

The Story

This is another game that should have a hard time getting up to the Vegas total. I know the Rams and Niners have some great offensive pieces. But that’s not why these teams have a winning record right now. They have been winning games mainly because the Niners defense has been the 2nd best in the game, overall, while the Rams have been 8th best overall.

If you break it down further, you see that the Niners are one of those teams that shows some moderate splits. They are 2nd best against the pass, which should hurt a huge chunk of the Rams best players, while being 12th best against the Run. Granted, 12th best isn’t bad by any stretch, but it’s clear that that is where you’re going to want to try to attack. That means I have no problem taking a good deal of Todd Gurley here. I don’t think that he’s a lock by any means, but, as I pointed out, they’ve been ramping up his workload in anticipation of the playoffs. He is only 6300 and he’s gotten over 20 DKP the last couple of games. I have no problem taking a bet on him this Saturday.

When it comes to the pass game, I am a lot more concerned. The Rams best WR, Cooper Kupp, mans the slot almost 70% of the time. He should see an ton of K’Waun Williams, who has been absolutely fantastic in his slot role this season. Right now the Rams are 3rd best in the NFL against the slot. Kupp is always a GPP play, but it’s going to be one of the harder matchups he’ll see all season. If anything, I would attack SF on the outside, with Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, though this isn’t the best route either, the Niners being 8th best against the perimeter as well. I should also add that, with Gerald Everett likely returning, and the Rams playing 3 Wide most of the time, we should see the end of Tyler Higbee being a sure thing. I expect his ownership to be too high based on the last few weeks of work, but I think that’s a mistake. His potential is limited by the return of Everett and his price is just too high.

On the other side, we see a Rams team that is 6th best against the run, making it tougher for an already stacked Niners backfield, and 11th best against the pass. I don’t think this split is great enough to warrant a massive shift in playstyle for the Niners, so I expect them to continue to attack how they want. That means a decent amount of Raheem Mostert, who has become the unquestioned #1 on the team. His price of 6100 isn’t cheap, but he should be a huge factor in this team, especially considering the Niners are projected to win by a touchdown. If you want to take a chance on Matt Brieda or Tevin Coleman, I understand given their prices. But just take them with the understanding that they are going to get like 10-15% of the RB share which may be enough to get a lucky TD, but shouldn’t be enough to make you feel comfortable.

When you break down the Rams pass D, you have to break it down with the understanding that everything changed dramatically when they got Jalen Ramsey. Over the last 4 weeks, for example, The Rams have been the best team in the NFL against the perimeter and the 3rd WORST against the slot. Plus, we should see Ramsey shadowing Emmanuel Sanders, which is not good for Sanders. Given their weakness against the slot and short field, I am going to pair my Jimmy G shares with Kendrick Bourne, George Kittle, and a small amount of Deebo Samuel who runs the slot 25% of the time.

OTF Plays (over the field)

  • Todd Gurley – I think he’s the best option for the Rams, I think he’s underpriced, and I’m sure he’ll be underowned.
  • The Defenses – I am not going to have as much of this game as the BUF/NE game, but I expect this game to go well overlooked. Both the Niners and Rams Ds are fantastic options, especially for their prices.
  • Raheem Mostert – I’m not sure I expect him to outscore Gurley, but I do expect the Niners to lean on him as time winds down and they maintain their touchdown lead.

? GPP Options (guaranteed prize pool)

  • Niners Pass Game – Again, I don’t think they’re going to have to rely on this a whole lot, but I have no problem taking a chance on Jimmy G, Kittle, Bourne, and Deebo Samuel especially
  • Rams Pass Game – Again, I don’t think they’re going to want to rely on this a whole lot, but I think they may not have a choice. If they get stuck in a position where they have to pass, you’ll want some exposure to Goff, Cooks, and Woods, especially.
  • Rams TEs – I don’t think they have as good enough chance of hitting paydirt as the perimeter guys, especially with Everett coming back, but him and Higbee will still be used to move the ball down the field, and will still get end zone looks. The problem is splitting them with one another.
  • Matt Brieda and Tevin Coleman – Anything can happen on a 3 game slate. With how much the Niners will run it today, I will make sure to have some exposure to both the backup RBs in case Mostert gets injured, or one of them comes out hot and they ride the hot hand.

? UTF Plays (under the field)

  • Cooper Kupp – He should be the most popular of Rams WRs, and he has the toughest matchup by far. No reason to push it here.
  • Emmanuel Sanders – Getting the Jalen Ramsey treatment is no good, especially the way he’s been playing the last month or so.

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