NFL Week 7 Milly Maker Analysis

Hey Everyone!

bathrobeDFS here with your Weekly NFL Milly Maker breakdown. I will work through every game, analyzing any and all relevant data I can muster with regards to how they will perform in a DFS capacity.

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OFFENSIVE INJURIES TO MONITOR

CAR – Curtis Samuel (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
NO – Michael Thomas (WR) – OUT
NO – Emmanuel Sanders (WR) – OUT (Covid-19)

BUF – John Brown (WR) – OUT
BUF – Dawson Knox (TE) – OUT
NYJ – Sam Darnold (QB) – QUESTIONABLE (Expected to Play)
NYJ – Jamison Crowder (WR) – DOUBTFUL

DET – NO ONE
ATL – NO ONE

CLE – Austin Hooper (TE) – OUT
CIN – Joe Mixon (RB) – OUT

GB – Aaron Jones (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
GB – Robert Tonyan (TE) – QUESTIONABLE (Expected to Play)
HOU – Jordan Akins (TE) – QUESTIONABLE (Expected to SIT)

DAL – NO ONE
WSH – Isaiah Wright (WR) – OUT
WSH – Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – OUT

PIT – NO ONE
TEN – NO ONE

TB – NO ONE
LV – Bryan Edwards (WR) – OUT

SF – Raheem Mostert (RB) – OUT
SF – Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
NE – Julian Edelman (WR) – QUESTIONABLE (Expected to Play)

KC – Le’Veon Bell (RB) – Could Be Active
KC – Sammy Watkins (WR) – OUT
DEN – Jake Butt (TE) – QUESTIONABLE

JAX – Tyler Eifert (TE) – OUT
LAC – Justin Jackson (RB) – QUESTIONABLE (Expected to Play)

SEA – NO ONE
ARI – Deandre Hopkins (WR) – QUESTIONABLE (Expected to Play)


Carolina Panthers (3-3) at NO Saints (3-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 51 – NO 29.25 – CAR 21.75
Wednesday Morning: SAME
Thursday: SAME
Saturday: 50 – NO 28.5 – CAR 21.5

The Story

While these two teams have similar records, I think they’re pretty far apart in terms of ability and skill and, as you can see, so does Vegas. If the Panthers were at home here, with a full stadium, I may have them being competitive but, as it stands, I think NO can win this game pretty handily. 

It all comes down to defenses here. When it comes to defensive efficiency, the Saints are 8th best in the league. While they are mediocre against the pass (at 15th), they are pretty damned elite against the run, ranking 4th best in the NFL. This means we should expect that once again, while Mike Davis may get a huge majority of the work, success is not even remotely guaranteed here.

The fact that the Panthers are expected to be down, combined with the fact the Saints are more exploitable via the pass does make me like the Panthers passing game quite a bit here. Even if it’s garbage time points, it’s still passing production. That means having quite a bit of Teddy Bridgewater, his 2 main targets, Robby Anderson and the forgotten DJ Moore, as well as a smattering of Ian Thomas, who will almost certainly let me down, but does have some legit TD upside in this game. It basically comes down to who Lattimore is on. I expect he won’t shadow anyone, so they’re just gonna have to feed it to both big WRs.

On the Saints side, especially if Michael Thomas is out, the gamescript should also be fairly obvious here. The Panthers D is the opposite of the Saints’ – they are 21st overall – and show opposite splits to the Saints as well – they are 13th against the pass and 7th worst against the run. That means a Saints team, that is supposed to have the lead, is going against a team that can’t stop the run.

Hello, Alvin Kamara

SATURDAY UPDATE: We now know that Michael Thomas AND Emmanuel Sanders will be OUT this weekend. This makes me like Kamara even more. It also means having a decent amount of the pass catchers, since they’re all going to be too cheap. 

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Alvin Kamara (RB) – I think he’s one of the best plays of the day. 
  • Carolina Pass Game – Gimme a bunch of Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. Like a ton. They’re both too cheap. Teddy Bridgewater has a lot of competition, but I think he’s also a fantastic play for the price. Not to mention his rushing ability. 
  • Cheap Saints Pass Catchers – Again, I don’t love the spot they are in. But the hammer dropping on Thomas and Manny Sanders is huge. Jared Cook (4300) is the most expensive player left. He’s a great option. So are Tre’quan Smith (4000) and Deonte Harris (3000). You also have to have some exposure to Marquez Callaway (3000), Adam Trautman (2500), and Josh Hill (2500) all of whom are, like Harris, minimum priced. None of them are guaranteed anything, again. Especially if NO has the lead all game and they lean on Kamara and Murray. But they’re so cheap that, if any one of them goes off, they can lead you to the money. Just pay attention to ownership as best you can.

GPP Options

  • Latavius Murray (RB) – Two weeks ago, against Detroit, he got 21.3 DKP at almost no ownership. This is a game the Saints should win pretty handily. Murray might get some extra work, and another couple goal line touches. 
  • Ian Thomas (TE) – While I will probably be OTF on him, I am not going to go nuts, and I know it’s a GPP only play

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Mike Davis (RB) – While I’m sure he’ll get a decent handful of receptions, he’s going against the Saints strength, in a game they’re supposed to lose by a lot. Yuck

——-

Buffalo Bills (4-2) at NY Jets (0-6)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 46 – BUF 29.75 – NYJ 16.25
Wednesday Morning: 45 – BUF 29.25 – NYJ 15.75
Thursday: 45 – BUF 28.75 – NYJ 16.25
Saturday: 46 – BUF 28.25 – NYJ 17.75

The Story

The Bills get a scrimmage game to practice and fuck around and have fun! How fun!!!

I mean, this one is as simple as it gets – play any and all Bills you can, especially their D. Especially people who run – namely Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and even Zack Moss, who may see enough of a lead that the Bills let him play bellcow for a quarter. 

Wanna play the Bills passing game? Well, the Jets are second worst against the pass in the NFL

Seriously, there are no bad options when you are playing the Jets. None. 

As far as the Jets go, you can play Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman and that should be about it. 

SATURDAY UPDATE: Crowder has been downgraded to DOUBTFUL. Upgrade Perriman substantially, as well as the Buffalo D. Even with Darnold coming back. 

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Bills Rushers – This includes their QB, Josh Allen, as well as RBs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, both of whom I do love today. Moss is more a GPP play, but I really do expect him to have that “breakout” game that people didn’t expect for some reason. 
  • Bills DEasily the best D play of the week, even if they don’t wind up with the most fantasy points. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a bad fucking analyst and trying to be way, way too fucking cute. Yes, I know Dallas is also a dumpster fire right now. I know the Eagles give up 20 sacks a game (though PHI/NYG  isn’t on this slate, obviously). It’s not even close. 
  • Breshad Perriman (WR) – He’s only 3700 and he should be the clear #2 option on this team that should be forced to throw it all game. Perriman showed he was healthy last week and that he’s going to be targeted, even in important spots. While I am worried about him being shadowed by Tre’Davious White, I don’t know how you can’t see 3700 and think he’s worth the risk for opportunity alone.

GPP Options

  • Jeff Smith (WR), Chris Herndon (TE), and Braxton Berrios (WR) – With Crowder out, one of these three should get some looks as the Jets struggle to come from behind and are forced to throw a bunch. I prefer Smith over Herndon/Berrios, but Herndon/Berrios are better for the short pass. 

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Bills Pass Game – Again, I like em a lot. I think they’re all good plays cause the Jets are terrible. I just think they’ll be super, super popular and they’re all fairly priced here and the Bills really, really won’t need to pass at all. 
  • Every Other Jet Not Named – They Bad. Reaaaaaal Bad. I would consider putting them in the rare “Players I am Fading” section that I almost never use.

——-

Detroit Lions (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 56.5!!!! – ATL 29.5 – DET 27
Wednesday Morning: 56.5!!!! – ATL 29.25 – DET 27.25
Thursday: 55 – ATL 28.5 – DET 26.5
Saturday: 55 – ATL 28.75 – DET 26.25

The Story

One of the 3 fantasy games of the week. Take your pick, here. There are 3 incredible games we’re gonna wanna build our teams around, primarily – this one, GB/HOU, and SEA/ARI. I think that this may be my favorite of them all. Let’s take a closer look

If we know one thing about the Lions it’s that they like to pass as much as they can. Last week notwithstanding, where D’Andre Swift had a breakout performance against the worst defense in the NFL, Jacksonville after the Lions came out to a near-insurmountable lead and they were able to just run the clock down. If the game is close? They’re going to throw. And this game is supposed to be close and high scoring

On top of that, the Falcons are playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, which should afford Detroit some extra plays. And the cherry on top – Atlanta is the 3rd worst performing defense against the pass so far this season. I mean, come on. That is just a confluence of wonderfulness I can’t wait to get on, even though I know it’ll be popular.

That means I’m gonna have a ton of Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, and TJ Hockenson, the only 3 players in the passing game that I can actually rely on for points. The Falcons are 2nd worst against the perimeter, and Golladay should see a ton of Kendall Sheffield, who he should be able to absolutely destroy.

 I will also have a smattering of Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola, though those guys are GPP plays and can’t be relied on. If you want a deep GPP play? Detriot’s TE2, Jesse James, who has pretty decent TE upside here. 

On the Falcons side of the ball, they are facing a Lions defense that is, overall, two spots better than them, sitting at a poor 23rd place overall. They show some real splits, though, ranking 12th best against the pass and 3rd worst against the run. I think that opens up a very interesting way to pivot in this game – while most people are going to, understandably, go for the Falcons fantastic passing game here, the sneakiest play with tremendous upside may just be Todd Gurley.  Last week, Gurley put up a disappointing 9.7 DKP against a poor Minnesota rush D but that was because Matt Ryan decided to get Julio Jones back into shape. This week, I wouldn’t be shocked if Gurley winds up with 100+ yards, a handful of receptions,  and 1 or 2 TDs and I don’t think his ownership will reflect that

If you want to go the passing route, I don’t blame you either. Just know the Lions have been decent against the slot, but 6th worst against the perimeter. That means I would focus on the two lesser known Atlanta WRs – two guys named Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Lions Main Pass Game –  One of, if not my favorite, stack of the day. Especially considering price. I will have a lot of trouble not starting my lineups with Stafford/Golladay, with a few Stafford/Golladay/Hockenson
  • Todd Gurley – That Stafford/Golladay stack will also have Gurley locked in at RB. He should absolutely eat against a Lions team that can’t stop the run. 

GPP Options

  • Lions Secondary Pass Game – I don’t love em, but, given the matchup here, you have to have some exposure to Jones, Amendola, and Jesse James. Atlanta is seriously 2nd worst against both the outside and the slot. You can attack them anywhere, and Stafford may have to, if he’s playing from behind all game.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Atlanta’s Pass Game  – Again, this is where I clarify “Under the Field” doesn’t mean someone is a bad play. It means I think they will be overowned, especially after last week. On top of that, playing Ryan+Julio+Ridley is damn near impossible with sacrificing a ton, and Hayden Hurst and the slot WRs are GPP plays at best. So, in summary – I love Ryan, Jones, and Ridley, but their prices are tough, and they will be too popular for the glaring weakness Detroit has against the run, and the fact ATL is supposed to win.
  • Lions Run Game – The one thing Swift’s breakout probably did was guarantee that it’ll be hard to play any RB from Detroit in the near future, as they continue to feed AP and give Kerryon Johnson a few touches of his own every game.

——-

Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Cincy Bengals (1-4-1)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 50.5 – CLE 26.75 – CIN 23.75
Wednesday Morning: SAME
Thursday: 50.5 – CLE 27 – CIN 23.5
Saturday: 50.5 – CLE 26.75 – CIN 23.75

The Story

Somehow, regardless of how mediocre they’ve performed, the Brows are 4-2 and should, reasonably, be 5-2 after this game. Which is astounding. But here we are. It’s a crazy year. It’s like the guy in your fantasy league that is sitting in 3rd place somehow, even though he has less fantasy points than the guy in 10th. 

I would say the Browns and Bengals are very similar defenses from a fantasy perspective – both are poor – they are 20th and 18th respectively – and neither show any real splits, meaning both are about 20th against the run and pass. Not horrible, but certainly worse than average. When we see something that like, it means we can expect both teams to just do what they do best and not try to really change their normal gameplan drastically to account for a huge exploitable weakness in the opposition. 

That means, when it comes to the Bengals, we can expect them to be playing from behind, meaning that, while Joe Mixon should have a role here, I would expect the Bengals production here to come more from Joe Burrow and his cast of receivers. When we break that down, we see a Browns team that has allowed the most fantasy points to the slot position on the season, and the 3rd most to WRs overall. That means, while I will spread the exposure around, I do want to have some shares of all 3 – Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and AJ Green, in that order. 

When it comes to the Browns, who are expected to win this game and I expect to play with a lead, I have no problem taking some extra shares of Kareem Hunt here, who has the potential for a huge game and may be overlooked due to giving up touches to the backups last game due to the blowout. 

When it comes to the pass game, the Bengals have been pretty decent against the slot, making me think this will not be the game Jarvis Landry makes you glad you rostered him. The thing that makes me salivate, though, is the fact that, on the season, the Bengals are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to where Odell Beckham plays, and they should be able to move him around against some really underwhelming CBs.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Since I wrote this mid-week, both Mixon for CIN and Austin Hooper for CLE have been ruled out. That means I am all about Gio Bernard (though he will be chalk). I am also a big fan of taking some shares of Njoku AND Bryant, both of whom are capable of catching passes and have gotten red zone usage.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Odell Beckham (WR) – Beckham is the 16th most expensive WR on this slate, and I think he has a good possibility of being higher than the 16th highest scoring player. He will also have a good matchup and decent gamescript. The only question is how successful the QB will be.
  • Kareem Hunt (RB) – Should be underowned for the 20+ DKP upside he has today. Browns should be able to lean pretty heavily on both of these dudes without much issue. 
  • Cincy Pass Game – Gimme a bunch of Boyd and Higgins and AJ Green, in that order. That’s it, though.
  • Gio Bernard (RB) – 4500 and he will get a bellcow amount of work. Yeah. I’ll run with that all day. 

GPP Options

  • Joe Burrow (QB) – Don’t love him, but that’s why he’s a GPP play. The odds are he is going to need to throw it a bunch against a team that’s been terrible against the pass. He’s only 5500. That looks like potential for a lot of value to me. 
  • Browns D – You know what makes a good GPP D? Someone that will be facing a constant stream of throws from a rookie QB that will be relatively unowned and overlooked. Could they blow up in your face? Oh. Most Certainly. But they’re only 2800. 
  • David Njoku and Harrison Bryant (TEs) – With Hooper out, these guys should get some of that end zone work, and some of those short passes designed to move the chains and keep the drives and clock going, as the Browns work to maintain their lead.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Baker Mayfield (QB) – I think the Browns will be able to push the ball in with the running game, and Mayfield shouldn’t have to do all too much here.

Players I am Fading

  • Drew Sample (TE) – I will never play him. He is not a pass catching TE.

——-

GB Packers (4-1) at Houston Texans (1-5)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 56.5!!!! – GB 30 – HOU 26.5
Wednesday Morning: SAME
Thursday: 57!!!!!! – GB 30.25 – HOU 26.75
Saturday: SAME!!

The Story

Welcome to the 2nd of 3 fantastic and stackable games on the slate today. While I like DET/ATL better, I like this one as my second favorite, just ahead of SEA/ATL. There are very few “bad” plays here, but let’s dig in and see who are the “best” plays. 

If we look at general defenses, we learn a little but not too much. The Packers are, overall, the 3rd worst defense so far this year. They’ve done that by being the 8th worst against both the pass and the run. When it comes to the Texans, it’s more of a mixed bag. Overall, they are better than the Packers – they are 6th worst instead of 3rd worst. But when you break it down, the Texans are 13th worst against the pass and 5th worst against the run, meaning they are better than GB against the pass and worse against the run. 

Hope that wasn’t too confusing. 

Digging in further, GB has been pretty incredible in one way – against the slot. Right now, they are 3rd best in the NFL against the position, making it hard to trust Randall Cobb. Chandon Sullivan has been fantastic. On the perimeter, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks will see the D of Kevin King and Jaire Alexander, both of whom are good defenders who have been doing a decent job this year, even though GB has been poor against the pass in general. It’s clear, though – the best way to attack GB through the air is, by far, the perimeter. And Fuller and Cooks are clearly talented enough to get the job done here. With Houston expected to be playing from behind, these guys should get a decent amount of work and I like both of them for their prices. Especially Cooks at 5200. 

In the past, when the Texans were in a spot where they’d have to stay in a passing offense a lot, I would rely on taking a cheap and underowned Duke Johnson but that’s just not the case anymore with his (not actual) cousin David Johnson an absolutely tremendous pass catching back who is more than capable of getting that job done. In fact, I think David Johnson is better as a pass catching RB than as a straight RB. So I think this is going to be a good type of game for him, the only issue is that we just haven’t seen him break 14 DKP since week 1, including against JAX, who is a bad D while HOU had a big lead. 

When you break the Texans down further, you see that, really, they’re just not good anywhere. They have some good players, don’t get me wrong. Bradley Roby, who will shadow Davante Adams this weekend, for example. But there’s no way you can say Roby is as good as Adams or that, if motivated, Aaron Rodgers won’t be able to find Adams for 10+ receptions on Sunday. 

The best we get from Houston is their slot defense but even that is middle-of-the-road, at best. It should mean MVS has a little tougher a haul than Adams, but, again, he has shown he has enough skill to take on non-elite defenders. It also gives me more reason to like a Robert Tonyan on paper, though his price completely overreacted to his career game, and it’s gonna be hard to really hit him hard the rest of the season (or until his price gets reasonable). Especially since his big game came while Adams was out, and we all know just how much of the looks Adams gets in this offense (most)

Given the fact that the Packers are supposed to have a lead and the fact that the Texans can’t stop the run at all, my favorite play here is, overwhelmingly, Aaron Jones. In week 2 against Detroit he got 48.6 DKP. I’m not saying he’s going to get that again because that would be insane to say. But what I can say is that this is certainly the type of matchup in which he could put those numbers up again. So long as he’s not vultured too much by Jamaal Williams

SATURDAY UPDATE: This one is pretty massive. Aaron Jones was a late addition to the injury report. He injured his calf on Thursday and was not able to practice on Friday. There are some who believe the Packers will be cautious and rest him regardless. That would mean we can transfer our complete love of Aaron Jones over to both Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon, both of whom are min priced at 4000. While it’s possible they allow Williams to be the bellcow here, it is also very likely that Dillon is the 1st and 2nd down back and Williams is the passing/3rd down/change of pace guy. Still, given the scoring in this game, both would be fantastic options. 

Additionally, we are seeing some real doubt at the TE slots. First, on the Texans, Jordan Akins is looking like he won’t be playing. That makes Darren Fells still a fantastic play, though the 4100 price tag isn’t as nice as it used to be. Still, he’s heavily involved and should be in your pool for sure. Additionally, on GB, Robert Tonyan is QUESTIONABLE and may not be able to suit up. If he does not, we can add both Jace Sternberger and Marcedes Lewis to our player pools, both of whom are min priced at 2500. Neither are fantastic options, and Tonyan’s absence may just increase the short work Davante Adams gets, though. There’s no guarantee, AT ALL, that Tonyan’s work is 1:1 transferred to other TEs. 

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Aaron Jones (RB) – IF HE PLAYS – Another one of my favorite overall plays on the day. How can you not absolutely love him here???
  • Jamaal Williams AND AJ Dillon (RBs) – IF AARON JONES IS OUT – Min Priced (for RBs), should be in for a huge amount of work, including a bunch of receptions. Should be a great game for them both. I would probably take Dillon over Williams for the GPP aspect of it, though the odds are better Williams has the substantial score. 
  • Davante Adams (WR) – I am not going to lean too heavily on the GB passing game, but I think Adams could absolute eat this game. I hate how high his price is but we all know how high his ceiling is. I have no problem stacking him with Rodgers, but I don’t think it’s necessary at all. 
  • Deshaun Watson (QB) – If this game stays close, Watson is going to have to do a lot to make that happen. And this game is supposed to be close and high scoring. 
  • The Two Big Texans WRs – I will pair Watson with Fuller, with Cooks, and with Fuller and Cooks as much as I can. Especially if I can run it back with Aaron Jones. That is, easily, my favorite stack from this game. 

GPP Options

  • Aaron Rodgers (QB) – I like Rodgers a lot in this game, obviously. How could you not?? But I think a lot of the heavy lifting will go to Jones and, while I expect Adams to eat, that doesn’t necessarily mean Rodgers is going to pay off his 7k salary. 
  • David Johnson (RB) – I think there’s a good chance he gets you like 11-13 DKP again, but he has ceiling for much more in this game if the Texans happen to have a couple goal-line downs. 
  • Jordan Akins (TE) – If he plays, he could take back over TE1 duties, which would be a hell of a value for 3200. Look how he did before the injury, and how Darren Fells has done as the TE1 since he’s been gone. The Texans have been really leaning on that TE1 spot and, if Akins gets back there, he could go off. Alternately, if Akins is out, I love Fells today, even though I don’t like the 4100 as much as I like the 3200 for Akins. Obviously.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Rest of the GB Pass Attack – Whether the problem be one of opportunity (MVS) or price (Tonyan), I think this is going to be a game where GB can lean on Aaron Jones and the folks here may be overowned. Though, let’s be frank, 4100 for MVS isn’t high enough for his ceiling. 
  • Randall Cobb (WR) – Really tough matchup, they should be looking elsewhere.

——-

Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Washington FC (1-5)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 46 – DAL 23.5 – WSH 22.5
Wednesday Morning: 46 – PICK EM – DAL 23 – WSH 23
Thursday: SAME

Saturday: 45 – DAL 23 – WSH 22

The Story

If you watched that horrorshow of a Cowboys game this past week, you know how crazy it is that anyone is in a pick-em with them besides the Jets. Yeah I know they have incredibly talented personnel in Zeke and Cooper and CeeDee, and Gallup and Schultz aren’t so bad, either. The glaring problem we all know and saw – Andy Dalton + Dallas’ O-Line does not hold up. And it’s going to be messy. 

Before last week, the Arizona Cardinals were the 20th ranked defense. 20th out of 32. That’s bad. The Cowboys performed so poorly that the Cardinals jumped from 20th to 9th. They jumped up 11 spots, 6 weeks into the season, because the Cowboys with Dalton under center are a mess. 

Here, they go against a Washington team that was, before last week, ranked 4th best in overall defense and, after a tough week, and is now ranked 7th overall. That’s 7th best. Including 6th best against the pass. All the more reason we should be hesitant to trust anything in the Dallas pass game

And when your pass defense is that good, it also means being able to focus on stacking the box and doing what you can to stop Zeke which we saw a worse Cards D do to great effect. Basically right now you should approach the Cowboys with great hesitation, especially since their ownerships haven’t fallen nearly far enough for Dalton being there.

On the other side of the ball, the Washington FC is going to see a huge number of injuries to their receivers, with Sims on IR, Harmon OUT, Wright OUT, and Gandy-Golden OUT. If this game is close, Washington is going to have to throw a lot, which means we should expect a large amount of work to go to Terry McLaurin, who should be one of your favorite overall WRs on the day. He is going to be shadowed to Trevon Diggs, who has been torched all season. And McLaurin will get extra work due to the other injuries. 

We should also see a large amount of work going to Dontrelle Inman, coming off a stretch of 18.8, 6.9, 0.8, and 9.5 DKP in the last 4 weeks. One of those is not great, obviously, but the other 3 are pretty nice for 3600. And, again, he will get extra work. Cam Sims is coming off a 1 target, 1 reception, 22 yard TD catch last week. One play for 9.2 DKP. Not bad. He is min priced and he will be the WR3 here. They don’t have many other options. 

We should also have a decent amount of one of the favorite targets all season – Logan Thomas, who remains laughably priced at 3500. He is a fantastic play today, especially against a Cowboys squad who, again, just keeps getting torched by pass catchers, and ranks near the bottom of the league in all types of defense. 

Where the Cowboys are worst, however, is against the run where they currently sit 4th worst in the NFL. I assume Antonio Gibson will be the most popular Washington RB. He is the most expensive and, for the most part, he is the only one getting the goal-line work. However, do yourself a favor and do not ignore JD McKissic, who I wrote about in my other article this week. He has outscored Gibson in the last 2 weeks, he is being completely overlooked and, if he breaks off a big run, he will get you a ton of points for no ownership. I’m not saying go all in here, but make sure you don’t ignore him. He’s in a great, great spot

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Washington D (DST) – They are only 2500 and they have a good chance for a buttload of fumbles and sacks and maybe even a pick six. While the Bills are my favorite running away, if you’re adding price into the equation, you have to give Washington a lot of consideration. Just know, like Buffalo, they will be popular. Maybe even more popular. 
  • Terry McLaurin (WR) – Just want to highlight him specifically. Only 5800. Could get 15 targets this week with the other injuries. Could easily clear 20 DKP. 
  • Other Washington Pass Catchers – There aren’t many of em, so I will make sure I have some exposure to Inman, Cam Sims, and a decent amount of Logan Thomas as well. 

GPP Options

  • The Dallas Cowboys (Whole Team) – Sure, they are still expected to score 3 touchdowns. But I just do not like them with Dalton under center, against a D that has been doing pretty damn well this season, and should do a decent job of stopping Dallas for most, if not all, of the game. I need to make one thing clear, as always – Under the field does not mean fade. It means I expect the field to have too much Zeke, Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Gallup and their prices are just far, far too high for both the matchup, and their QB. I’ll take the under here. 
  • Antonio Gibson (RB) – again, to make it clear, I LIKE GIBSON THIS WEEK. I think he’ll do fine. But I am seeing people own him as if he was a bellcow, and not part of a committee he’s not the highest scoring member of. So I’ll have him, but I’ll be smart about it

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • JD McKissic (RB) – Based on responsibilities, the D they are going against, and overall ownership, I am a big fan of taking a GPP chance on McKissic this weekend.

——-

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) at Tennessee Titans (5-0)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 52 – PIT 27 – TEN 25
Wednesday Morning: SAME
Thursday: 51 – TEN 26 – PIT 25
Saturday: 51 – TEN 26.25 – PIT 24.75

The Story

The battle of undefeated teams – we see the Titans, who’ve won one game handily and then 4 games by less than a TD. In fact, their first 3 games were won by 2, 3, and 1 points respectively and win 5 was an OT thriller. Like normal, the Titans are doing this by being the smarter, better run team with enough talent to pull wins out.  They aren’t doing incredibly well defensively, but their offense has more than made up for it. Here they get a Steelers team that should be their toughest opponents to date. 

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers are winning by a more comfortable margin, though they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL up to this point.  Not that they’re a bad team – but we may not be looking at the #2 overall defense, including the #1 rush defense in the NFL. Derrick Henry will be the first real test they’ve had in the 2020 season. 

All in all, I think this game is going to be one with tremendous scoring potential, and I don’t think it will be owned that way. 

The Titans aren’t incredibly strong anywhere defensively, but they’ve been particularly bad at stopping the pass. They haven’t been good anywhere, either – they can’t stop right, left, or slot. They can’t stop the perimeter and they can’t stop the middle. So, if you wanna take a chance on James Conner, I don’t blame you. But his price is fair. But I would like to mainly focus on the pass game here, so count me in for Big Ben, and his assortment of receivers. 

On the Titans side, they have Derrick Henry who is matchup proof. So play him if you like points.They also are getting Corey Davis back from the Covid list. He is joining Adam Humphries, who returned last week and put up a great game, as well as Jonnu Smith, who is over his injury. That means, given that the Steelers are weaker against the pass, and this is expected to be a high scoring game, it would be smart to have a bunch of GPP shares of these guys.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Almost This Whole Game – It may sound like a copout, but I absolutely love this game. I would take the over, even though there should be a bunch of running here that helps to wind the clock down. So, you have to love Derrick Henry, cause how could you not. I don’t care if Pitt was the #1 rushing defense. They haven’t faced anyone. You have to love Ryan Tannehil as well as his group of underpriced and underowned receivers – AJ Brown, Adam Humphries, Jonnu Smith, and Corey Davis. On Pittsburgh, I love the passing attack the most, and want a decent amount of Claypool, Johnson, Smith-Schuster, and Big Ben. There are so many good options in this game. ALL OF THEM WILL NOT PAY OFF, but some of them will. Now the question is getting lucky. I listed my favorites in order.

GPP Options

  • Anthony Firsker (TE) – He did well enough for the Titans while Smith was out that I think he did enough to get some looks even with Smith back. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets a TD either and everyone already forgot about him (note: i don’t read anyone else’s analysis, so I don’t know who people are actually talking about)

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • James Conner (RB) – I don’t hate him. There are just too many RBs to handle today, and there are others in this price range I want much more than him. Especially since I think the Titans have the lead in this game and Pitt is forced to throw more often.
  • Eric Ebron (TE) – Again, I don’t hate him. But he’s too expensive for what the Steelers are doing with all their WR healthy. He should be back in the 3k range, not 4k.

——-

TB Buccaneers (4-2) at LV Raiders (3-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 405pm EST.

Vegas Lines

  • Saturday: 52 – TB 28 – LV 24
  • Sunday: 52 – TB 28.25 – LV 23.75

The Story

This is a game I am not as big a fan of as the field. I understand that, if this were last year, seeing TB vs OAK (at that time), we would be salivating. But this is a different year. And, as far as this year goes, these two teams are in different orbits. 

Right now, the Bucs have the Best D in the game. And it’s not even close. I mean it. It’s as big a gap from 1st to 2nd as it is from 2nd to 7th. TB is #1 against the pass and #3 against the run. They are really good and LV is going to have a really hard time here trying to get the offense to work, consistently. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders are the 2nd worst D in the league. They are 2nd worst against the run and 7th worst against the pass. So TB should be able to do whatever they want, and LV won’t really have the tools to stop the onslaught from a stacks Bucs team. Which is a weird, weird, weird thing to type. 2020, man.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Ronald Jones (RB) – Last week, Jones put up 29 DKP. Granted, there was no Fournette in the mix but, given that Fournette was just out 3 weeks with an injury, what makes you think he’s going to take over a lead role? Or get anything more than a few touches to get himself back into game shape. Granted, I expect there to be a decent amount of junk time in this game, giving him the chance to get in there. But Jones should lead the attack of a TB team that pulls this game away slowly. He is less than 5% projected ownership. That is crazy. There are just too many RBs today. If you are playing DK, it is probably a 3 RB day.

GPP Options

  • Henry Ruggs III (WR) – When you’re this fast, it doesn’t matter who is covering you. You only need one play to pay off. Look at last week – he had 2 receptions on 3 targets and wound up with 118 yards, 1 TD, and almost 23 DKP. Dude is a freak and any week he is, at worst, a GPP play
  • Leonard Fournette (RB) – Like I said, there will be a lot of junk time, I think. It’ll be a good time to get him some reps. If you think this game stays close, though, go all in on Jones. 

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • TB Pass Game – As I always say, I don’t hate em. They won’t really have a ton of obstacles in their way. But I expect TB to do enough to pull away here, even on the road, and the pass game won’t need to be utilized as much. On top of that, they have so many tools that, in a game where there may be limited passes, you run into a too-many cooks situation. 
  • LV Raiders – I think the 24 points is very, very generous. And I think people are going to own them as if they’re going to score that much. But I trust the Bucs D here, so, while I will surely have some Waller, cause he’s just one of the best TEs in the game, there’s only one other player from LV that really piques my interest.

——-

SF 49ers (3-3) at NE Patriots (2-3)

Kickoff is Sunday, 425pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 45 – NE 23.75 – SF 21.25
Wednesday Morning: 44.5 – NE 23.5 – SF 21
Thursday: 43.5 – NE 22.75 – SF 20.75
Saturday: 44.5 – NE 23.5 – SF 21

The Story

This is another game, holistically, I am not a huge fan of. I feel like people aren’t going to treat it like it’s a game that is only supposed to get in the lower 40s in points. I think it will be one of those games where you wonder where the time went – this game will be starting the 3rd quarter as some of the other 425 games are finishing the 1st half. 

That means I expect a lot of runs and short passes, so let’s take a closer look here and see where we can find some advantages.

The Niners, right now, are the 11th ranked D in the game. But they show pretty sizable splits here – they are 7th against the run and 22nd against the pass. I expect the Pats, who are well coached, to try and exploit that by having a lot of short passes to James White and Julian Edelman, while Cam Newton gets some decent scrambles in there. I have significantly less faith in everyone else on the Pats. And these guys are all priced fairly enough you can run with them – just know it’s still going to be a harder go. At least the Pats are at home!!

The Pats D, on the other hand, shows no splits – they are 14th overall, but in the bottom half against both the pass and the run – 17th against the pass and 18th against the run. This means, like NE, I expect the Niners to do what they normally do – short passes and running. And they should be able to have moderate success in both, though we should always be aware that the Pats have some fantastic CBs and other defensive pieces that aren’t going to make it easy, even with the poorer ranking. 

When it comes to the pass game, I expect we’re going to see most of the targets go to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, although, again, I think they’ll find limited success. I don’t know if Jimmy G is playing well enough that we can count on him to work down the line and find tremendous success with a Brandon Aiyuk or Kendrick Bourne. So I expect them to do a lot of schemed plays specifically targeting someone, like they did last week, and, generally speaking, that means expect a decent amount of Deebo making plays again.

When it comes to the running game, I kind of don’t want to get involved. With Mostert out, we are going to see Jerrick McKinnon starting. Which is fine, except the fact he’s 5800 and there’s no guarantee he gets 50% of the work today. I mean, I expect him to get more than 50% of the work, but it’s not guaranteed. Nor are the goal line carries (which went to Jeff Wilson last time Mostert was out a few times). Plus, on top of that, Jamycal Hasty took over lead back duties last week after Mostert went down. Meaning, really, who the hell knows!?!?!?

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Deebo Samuel (WR) – Really, the only piece on either team I trust to go over the field on. And even then, it’s not a slam dunk. Still, I expect them to use him in many different ways, and try to get him into the end zone again. So I’ll go there.

GPP Options

  • George Kittle (TE) – I don’t trust him at this price against those NE CBs, given the way they play. But, if you think he can beat them, then he will have enough targets to pay off, easily. But he’s a GPP play as far as I’m concerned. Not someone I trust, but with upside for sure.  
  • James White (RB) – I think he could get you 15 DKP again today. He should get a decent amount of receptions and should be able to run with that, literally and figuratively. 
  • Jamycal Hasty and Jeff Wilson – I think they’re going to be way too popular, and I will probably be under the field on them when it all comes down to it. But both are decent options, especially for the price. I just think there are better ones.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Everyone Else in this Game – There’s something wrong with everyone here. Julian Edelman is in a great spot but has been nursing an injury and hasn’t topped 10 DKP in weeks. The SF rushers are a question of who the hell knows what’s going on. The pass games are tough to trust. And the game is supposed to be one of the lowest scoring on the day.

——-

KC Chiefs (5-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3)

Kickoff is Sunday, 425pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 48 – KC 28.75 – DEN 19.25
Wednesday Morning: 47 – KC 28.25 – DEN 18.75
Thursday: 45.5 – KC 27.5 – DEN 18
Saturday: 44 – KC 25.75 – DEN 18.25

The Story

Yeesh. Well, this should be a bad game as well. We have 2 top 10 defenses, and one top 5 offense. And that other offense is not so good. So what does that mean? That this game should be relatively low scoring, and still not that close. 

Right now, Denver is the 6th ranked D in the NFL. They are top 10 against the run and the pass, where they are 5th and 9th respectively. That means the Chiefs will still score anyway cause it’s the Chiefs, and then be able to lean on a run that will have a tougher time than if they were running out the clock against the Jags. Still, they have more than enough pieces to work the field and exploit a couple of those weaker CB matchups. Though, with AJ Bouye coming back this weak, it’s going to be harder to do that as well. 

That’s not to mention the mess of the run game, with Le’Veon Bell joining the team and “expected to have a role”. How much of a role? Who knows! We have to spend the money and guess. And hope, if we spend the money on CEH, that he’s not hamstrung or kneecapped by him. Figuratively. Bell isn’t Tonya Harding. Still, that’s a high price for uncertainty on CEH, isn’t it?

On the other side of the ball, we see something interesting – even though KC is the 10th ranked defense in the NFL, they have some of the worst splits in the NFL (next to Miami). Right now, KC is 4th best against the Pass and 27th against the run. That’s pretty incredible, given that, most of the time, KC opponents are forced to throw. So this is one of those statistics that is a bit misleading – the Chiefs are worse against the run because they play to stop the pass since they are in the lead by so much, so often. 

So who on Denver are you going to trust? Well, I am fine with Noah Fant, who is my favorite play on the team and should see a constant stream of work come his way, and should be a forgotten man after his injury. I don’t mind a GPP flier on Tim Patrick, who seems to be the de facto WR1 now, especially at that price. But yeah. Slim pickins here. 

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Demarcus Robinson (WR) – No Sammy Watkins and some other elite CBs taking the elite receivers away means the Chiefs working down the line. Robinson is only 3400 and he could pay off fantastically. I’m gonna count on it.

GPP Options

  • Noah Fant (TE) and Tim Patrick (WR) – The two best options on a team that’s going to have to throw it a lot
  • Le’Veon Bell (RB) – I don’t know how much work he’ll get, but he’s cheap enough that, if you wanna take a couple stabs at him, it wouldn’t be too crazy. As long as you don’t take that literally. Then it would be VERY crazy and I would not suggest you do that. 
  • Melvin Gordon (RB) – I do not love him this week, but there’s a chance he just gets to move the ball down the field while the Chiefs try to prevent a deep pass and, if we can get an easy 100+ rushing yards, even though he may not get a TD, I will take that chance

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Everyone Else – KC shouldn’t have to throw all game, so Pat Mahomes isn’t an amazing choice (though he should always be in your pool). CEH has Le’Veon Bell coming in the rotation, so who knows what the deal is with him, especially at that price. The Broncos have some excellent CBs and, if KC doesn’t need to pass as much, it takes some of the shine off of the expensive Hill and Kelce (though they should always be in your pool as well). I also think the Chiefs pass defense is good enough that, even though the Broncos should have to throw a lot, I don’t expect them to find tremendous success there. 

——-

Jacksonville Jags (1-5) at LA Chargers (1-4)

Kickoff is Sunday, 425pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 49.5 – LAC 28.5 – JAX 21
Wednesday Morning: 49 – LAC 28.25 – JAX 20.75
Thursday: SAME
Saturday: SAME

The Story

While I don’t think this game will be close, I still think there are some really intriguing pieces here that should get a ton of work, and could easily exploit some weakness the opposition has. 

Right now, the Jags are the worst defense in the league. They are legendarily bad against the pass – ranking dead last by miles – and 11th worst against the run. This means the Chargers should be able to take the lead at will and then keep it however they want – either by passing it constantly or running the ball. They will be more in a position to run, though, so I am going to try to have some extra exposure there

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers D has been consistent – they are 12th overall. If you break it down, they are 14th against the pass and 13th against the run. So Jacksonville has no real fantastic way to attack them. Not that the Chargers are, like, worldstoppers here. But they are decent enough they are gonna make it tough for the Jags to put up slate winning numbers. On top of that, their pricing has become a lot more fair – Robinson at 6200 is good. I have no problems there. But I’m not gonna target him. 

Similarly, Chark, Cole, and Shenault are all gonna keep taking targets from each other. Luckily, a couple of these guys are still slightly underpriced. You can take Chark at 5500, who is their best WR. But don’t ignore the potential of Keelan Cole and Shenault, both of whom are under 5k and could easily surpass Chark today.

The last thing I want to mention – Minshew is a big fan of passing to the TE. Tyler Eifert is out, meaning the only real TE he has is O’Shaugnessy, who he love anyway. At 2600, I think you have to have a bunch of him today. GPP only, of course. But I do like him a ton today.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • A Lot of Chargers – I want to start with the RBs – That means I will have a decent amount of Josh Kelley and Justin Jackson, both of whom are sitting around 5k. They are going to split reps, sure, but they could easily both pay off here. And no one will be on them. On top of that, JAX can’t stop the pass at all. So, if you want, load up on Herbert and Keenan Allen/Mike Williams stacks. And Hunter Henry too! You really can’t go wrong. 
  • James O’Shaughnessy – What can I say, I’m a sucker for this guy.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Jags Pass Game – I have no problem going with those Jags WRs, but they are going to split looks and I have other people I want to target. 

——-

Seattle Seahawks (5-0) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 820pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Tuesday Morning: 56.5!!!! – SEA 30 – ARI 26.5
Wednesday Morning: SAME
Thursday: 56 – SEA 29.75 – ARI 26.25
Saturday: 55 – SEA 29 – ARI 26

The Story

One of the games of the week, as I noted before. Even though it got moved to 8pm, it’s still on the Milly Maker slate. And I’m glad. It’s gonna give us a good bunch of players to choose from. 

Right now, Seattle is the 7th worst defense in the league, but they are showing some real splits – they are 9th best against the rush and 4th worst against the pass. With Arizona looking to play from behind, this means we can find gold in the Arizona passing game. I am going to be all over Kyler Murray and whoever is healthy enough to play. Christian Kirk, regardless, and an absolute ton of Deandre Hopkins if he’s healthy enough to suit up. If not, I am fine going with some extra shares of Andy Isabella and, if you don’t mind some extra risk, Larry Fitzgerald

I will avoid the run game here, as Seattle is really good with it, and they are both splitting things so much as to become hard to trust. 

On the other side, Arizona is actually a top 10 defense right now in every aspect – they are 9th overall, and 10th against both the run and the pass. However, as we have seen in the past, Seattle is a monster offensively and I don’t think the Cardinals D can hang all game.

The one person I will be light on is DK Metcalf, who I expect to be shadowed by Patrick Patterson. But everyone else on Seattle’s pass game is a go. That means having more than a few shares of, not only Russel Wilson, but also Tyler Lockett, and some extra GPP shares of Greg Olsen, David Moore, and Will Dissly. None of them could be trusted outright, but I like em plenty.

If Seattle has the lead all game, as is expected, we should also see Chris Carson get a nice amount of work. There are other players in his price range I like a lot more, so I won’t have a crazy amount. But Carson is definitely, at worst, a GPP candidate today.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett – These guys should both have fantastic games and I’m a big fan of both of them today. This is the stack I want
  • Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk/Deandre Hopkins – This is another stack I want a lot of.

GPP Options

  • Other Seattle Pass Catchers – Olsen, Moore, and Dissly all have a chance of getting some good run here
  • Chris Carson – Again, other people I like better, but he’s a great play regardless
  • Other Arizona Pass Catchers – No one is as good as Hopkins/Kirk here, but, especially if Hopkins is limited, Andy Isabella has shown his upside plenty of times.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Arizona RBs – Playing from behind and splitting reps? Nah.
  • DK Metcalf – Faces the toughest coverage in the game

——-


Personal Note from BathrobeDFS

Back in 2005 I was a musician. I wrote songs and played all the instruments and made records with a friend. I had opened for Maroon 5 once when they came to my area. I was making a name for myself and was recording my first real album when the unthinkable happened – my dad got sick with cancer and passed away. If you know this story, you know that, within a month of his passing, my uncle and my aunt also died. I was a wreck and stopped making music for a decade.

In 2016 I got a hard drive with all the files from my recording sessions and decided to try and put the album together, for my dad. He loved the songs and wanted me to finish it, and I wanted to do it for him. So I worked as hard as I could and, 15 years after I started, my album is now finished.

It’s called “sleep all day” and it’s something i’m very proud of. I would appreciate it if you would give it a listen all the way through and, if you like it, share it with others.

Thank you. I love you all.