NFL Week 4 – Milly Maker Analysis

Hey Everyone!

bathrobeDFS here with your Weekly NFL Milly Maker breakdown. I will work through every game, analyzing any and all relevant data I can muster with regards to how they will perform in a DFS capacity.


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OFFENSIVE INJURIES TO MONITOR

IND – Jonathan Taylor (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
IND – Jack Doyle (TE) – QUESTIONABLE
IND – Carson Wentz (QB) – QUESTIONABLE
MIA – No One

HOU – Scottie Phillips (RB) – OUT
HOU – Danny Amendola (WR) – OUT
BUF – No One

DET – D’Andre Swift (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
CHI – Darnell Mooney (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
CHI – Andy Dalton (QB) – QUESTIONABLE

TEN – Julio Jones (WR) – OUT
TEN – AJ Brown (WR) – OUT
NYJ – Jeff Smith (WR) – OUT
NYJ – Tyler Kroft (TE) – QUESTIONABLE
NYJ – La’Mical Perine (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
NYJ – Jamison Crowder (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
NYJ – Elijah Moore (WR) – OUT

KC – No One
PHI – No One

CAR – Christian McCaffrey (RB) – OUT
DAL – No One

NYG – Darius Slayton (WR) – OUT
NYG – Kaden Smith (TE) – QUESTIONABLE
NYG – Sterling Shepard (WR) – OUT
NO – No One

CLE – No One
MIN – Dalvin Cook (RB) – QUESTIONABLE

WSH – Antonio Gibson (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
ATL – Russell Gage (WR) – OUT

SEA – Tyler Lockett (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
SEA – Dee Eskridge (WR) – DOUBTFUL
SEA – Rashaad Perry (RB) – OUT
SF – Eli Mitchell (RB) – QUESTIONABLE

ARI – No One
LAR – Darrell Henderson (RB) – QUESTIONABLE

BAL – Lamar Jackson (QB) – QUESTIONABLE
DEN – Melvin Gordon (RB) – QUESTIONABLE

PIT – Chase Claypool (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
GB – Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR) – OUT


Washington Football Concern (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 48.5 – PICK EM
Tuesday – 48 – WSH 24.75 – ATL 23.25
Thursday – 47.5 – WSH 24.5 – ATL 23
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

I don’t like this game, but there are a bunch of players I like here. It’s easy to understand why – even though both teams have given you some fantastic fantasy performances, they are also filled with injuries and players who are dramatically underperforming. We’ve seen the Vegas total drop half a point since it opened, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops even further before Sunday. 

Still, like I just said, there are some really nice pieces we can get behind here – guys who may not be guaranteed to pay off, but have a great chance at exceeding value at a fair price.

Both teams get a sizable boost as well due to the performance of their defenses – so far, Atlanta is the 3rd worst performing defense in the NFL, ranking 26th against the pass and 24th against the run, while Washington is 4th worst, coming in 28th against the pass and 20th against the run. 

So, even if you don’t like these offensive pieces, you have to consider them. They’re just not gonna be facing too much resistance defensively.

That means, on the Washington side of the ball, taking a chance on their main players. I am fine with starting at Antonio Gibson, since Washington is supposed to win this game. I think he’s risky, though – Gibson hasn’t been getting as much work as we expected going into the year, and, while Washington is supposed to win, the margin is only 1.5 points, meaning it’s more likely to be a shootout. I mean, Gibson had 9.3 DKP in week 2 (while JD McKissic stole the show). Last week, he had 17.4 DKP, but almost all of that came on his 1 reception that he took to the house for 73 yards. That’s 14.3 of his 17.4 DKP in one play. He only got 12 rush attempts for 31 yards, though it’s understandable since they were so far behind. McKissic wasn’t that impressive either though, despite the need to pass, only getting 23 yards on 3 rush attempts and 2 targets/2 receptions for 15 yards. A far cry from the 20.3 DKP in week 2. 

I can understand going under the field on both of these RBs, though I would certainly consider them GPP plays with the upside they have in what should be a relatively high scoring game. 

I feel like I’m gonna wind up on the Washington pass game more than most, though. Taylor Heinicke isn’t a great QB, clearly. But he really hasn’t been doing that badly. In week 2, he got you 24 DKP. In week 3, he got 23.4 DKP. His week 3 was worse than that DKP indicates, especially considering that 73 of his 212 pass yards came in one flukey play to his RB (and he got 1 rushing TD, which we can’t count on). But results are results. And, against a terrible ATL D, Heinicke has a good chance of getting in that 24 DKP range again.

I mean, he has the receiving talent, right? Not only does he have Gibson and McKissic, he has Terry McLaurin, who has two games this season where he got 4 receptions and 62 yards, and one start where he caught the ball 11 times for 107 yards and a TD (for 30.7 DKP). Atlanta really doesn’t have anyone who can stop him. His only real limit is his QB. I also really like Logan Thomas, who is a consistent TD threat and should be a near lock for double digit DKP every week. 

Oh, and he’s getting potential star Curtis Samuel back this week from IR.

If you want to go a little deeper into GPP territory, I also like the upside of Adam Humphries and Dyami Brown, who are only 3600 and 3400 respectively. They only have one double digit DKP outing so far this season combined, but this is probably the worst D they’ve faced this season and, if Atlanta sells out to stop scary Terry and Samuel isn’t up to game speed yet, Humphries and/or Brown could be in for a busy day.

On the other side of the ball, there are also some question marks and some solid locks this week.

The first and most obvious play is Calvin Ridley, who has seriously underperformed this year. I guess it makes sense, though. I mean, who else is a threat on this team? If you’re the opposing D, why wouldn’t you throw everything you can at Ridley and force Matt Ryan to beat you with Olamide Zaccheaus and Kyle Pitts who, like a lot of rookie TEs, looks rough. Ridley is getting thrown the ball a ton, so it’s not like he’s putting up single digit DKP performances. He just hadn’t had that breakout week you expect out of him. He hasn’t gotten more than 63 yards in any game and only 1 TD in 3 weeks. Still, he has the skill to really pay off this season, at a 1000 discount from his initial price this year and, hopefully, at low ownership.

I think it’s crazy Antonio Gibson got more yards on one play last week than Ridley’s gotten in any full game this season. 

I have no problem using Kyle Pitts. He has the talent and he’s getting the 2nd most targets on the team. He’s just raw and not giving you any real stand-out performances. I would consider him a GPP play, cause he’s still way too popular for how he’s been performing. Zaccheaus got 6 targets last week with Russell Gage out, which he turned into 3 receptions and a TD. He’s over 4k now, so he comes with a lot more risk. 

The TE2 situation is one of the sticky situations. Going into the season, I really liked Hayden Hurst as a sneaky play, given his history with Ryan and the fact I expected the Falcons to run a lot of 2 TE sets. But Hurst, after a 6.8 DKP week 1 (where he was 3700), has been going downhill quickly. His price in week 2 was up to 3800. He got one target and 1 reception, for 1.6 DKP. In week 3, he got you 0 DKP. Lee Smith, on the other hand, seems to be taking Hurst’s job. He wasn’t targeted in week 1. In week 2, he got 1 target/reception for 9 yards and 1.9 DKP. In week 3, he outsnapped Hurst, 26 to 24, and got you 3 receptions for 7 yards and a TD. Not bad for 2500. He is someone I would consider an extremely deep GPP play this week, but still someone to keep in your player pool.

The running game is also kind of tricky – Mike Davis is, for all intents and purposes, the RB1. He hasn’t had a bad week so far, but the 10-13 DKP he’s getting every week isn’t gonna do much for you either. A lot of this has to do with the fact he has 0 TDs on the year, something I expect to change. Making him someone you also have to keep in your player pool. That one TD he’s due for would put him damn near 20 DKP for the week (if his other production holds), and I’ll take that for 5100.

The real star so far has been Cordarrelle Patterson, who has had back-to-back fantastic outings. In week 2, he got 7 rushes for 11 yards which isn’t great, but he also got a TD on the ground. And he added 5 receptions for 58 yards and another TD. That’s 23.9 DKP. In week 3, he got 20 yards on the ground, but another 6 receptions for a fantastic 82 yards. That was 16.2 DKP without getting a TD. I expect Ryan to keep using him as his safety valve and for him to continue to excel. Get him while his price is still under 5000.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

Cordarrelle Patterson (4900) – I love how much he’s been used. I love his skill set. Hell, I loved him when he was coming up with the Vikings. It makes me really happy to see him properly used and making good on his talent. He can run. He can catch passes (which Matt Ryan needs desperately). And they use him to get TDs. Way too cheap for what he’s been doing, and for how high scoring a game this is supposed to be. 

Taylor Heinicke (5900), Terry McLaurin (6900), and Logan Thomas (4900) – I expect these 3 guys to play a really big role in this game, as I expect it to devolve into a shootout where both sides are going to be throwing the ball constantly. This lines up really well for Heinicke to put up another 23 DKP game, with McLaurin and Thomas his favorite receivers, both with massive upside against this extremely poor Falcons D.

GPP Options

Atlanta Pass Game – Atlanta is supposed to lose, which means you expect this to be a game where they continue to throw the ball. They are also taking on one of the worst Ds against the pass so far this season. Still, everyone has been underperforming this season and I don’t think you can really go crazy with your ownership here, or have absolute faith anyone will succeed. Matt Ryan (5400) has looked like he lost a step, but he’s super cheap. Calvin Ridley (7000) has gotten too cheap for his upside, and he’s due for a big game. The problem is defenses are selling out to stop him because Atlanta has no real 2nd option yet. Kyle Pitts (5000) could emerge as that 2nd option, but he still looks like a raw rookie TE. You can play Olamide Zaccheaus (4100), but, as Ryan showed you in the first couple weeks, the WR2 has a floor of almost 0. You can also try one of the TE2 they run Lee Smith (2500) or Hayden Hurst (2600) but I have even less faith in these guys. 

Mike Davis (5100) – One of these games he’s gonna get a TD and that 12 DKP he’s getting every game is gonna be 18 DKP, and suddenly the 50 rush yards and 5-7 receptions he’s getting are gonna look pretty damn good for a 5k player. 

Washington RBs – I loved Antonio Gibson (6100) entering the season but, apart from one flukey 73 yard passing TD, he has looked less than stellar. He has the upside, and I believe in his talent. But I understand not wanting to pay 6100 for him, especially given how much they use JD McKissic (5000) in the pass game, and how much they should be throwing in this one. And, while I love McKissic as well, they use Gibson in the pass game just enough to make McKissic someone it’s hard to have faith in. 

Other Washington Pass Catchers – I don’t mind Curtis Samuel (3000) coming off IR at minimum price. But remember, we often see people eased back into games when missing several weeks, and, oftentimes, they can be quite rusty. I expect him to be more popular than he deserves but the price and talent are right, so I definitely understand. Adam Humphries (3600) and Dyami Brown (3400) here, given how much I expect Heinicke to throw. But I also think he’ll be able to get the ball to McLaurin and Thomas when he wants, and these guys come with significant risk of getting you nothing (or negative points, like Brown did in week 3).

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • No One

Detroit Lions (0-3) at Chicago Bears (1-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 44 – CHI 23.75 – DET 20.25
Tuesday – 42.5 – CHI 22.75 – DET 19.75
Thursday – 41.5 – CHI 22 – DET 19.5
Friday – 41.5 – CHI 22.25 – DET 19.25
Saturday –

The Story

This should be an extremely ugly game for both sides. Still, there are a couple plays I am extremely high on. 

Chicago looks like a mess because the QB situation looks absolutely awful. And it doesn’t help that, as of right now, we have no idea who is going to start week 4. Andy Dalton might be healthy enough to give it a go, but he’s terrible. Justin Fields may have all the talent in the world, but he looked completely overwhelmed in week 3, winding up going 6 for 20 for 68 yards, and only adding 12 yards on the ground. That means he got you 3.92 DKP in a week that he started. Nick Foles is also a candidate to start, but he’s even worse than Dalton since, last I checked, it wasn’t 2016 anymore.

This completely destroys the Chicago pass catchers. No matter who is under center how the sweet fuck can you trust any of them? And if it’s Fields, I may even fully fade them. I mean, six completions last week, and one-third of them (and his pass yards) went to the RB. No thanks.

You can consider playing David Montgomery, but having a terrible QB hurts more than just the pass catchers. Which is why Monty got you a severely underwhelming 7.5 DKP last week, getting only 10 rush attempts for 34 yards, with 2 receptions for 21 yards. He has a tremendous amount of talent. And I would consider him in GPPs if Dalton or Foles is under center. But if it’s Fields again? I’d be a lot more worried. Luckily, they’re going against Detroit, who probably have the worst defense in the NFL. So, at worst, you have to respect Monty this week at only 5800. 

Detroit has some pieces I like plenty. D’Andre Swift is emerging as one of the elite RBs in the NFL, and they could start using him even more.  He’s coming off another 24 DKP performance, catching 7 passes for 60 yards, and rushing for 47 and a TD. Jamaal Williams had a TD as well, putting up 14.7 DKP. I still think he’s a bit expensive, but totally worth a GPP play.

I am also a fan of the pass game. Jared Goff may throw a lot of short passes to RBs and (generally) TJ Hockenson, but those still count. And they do enough to help him rack up the points. I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit plays with the lead here and they lean even heavier on the run game. This makes it tougher to trust Goff and the WRs, though they should be considered GPP plays at worst. 

One note I’m sure someone else has stumbled on and you already knew (but, just in case…) Kalif Raymond last week got 10 targets from Goff. All the other receivers (including Hockenson) got nine combined. We’ve also seen Quintez “Don’t Call me Cintez Queefus” Cephus outdraw the rest of the WRs, so don’t take this as some sort of definitive sign. If anything, it shows you they’ll ride the hot hand (or the weakest coverage).

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

D’Andre Swift (6200) – I absolutely love Swift this week. If you read my Thursday analysis, you know I talked about how the coach kept talking about increasing James “Don’t Call Me Rimmy Jobinson” Robinson’s workload and, not surprisingly, his performances kept getting better. Even though Swift is coming off a 23 DKP performance where he was heavily involved, after the game, the coach said they need to use him more. Expect that this week. 

TJ “Don’t Call Me HJ Tockenson” Hockenson (5800) – I love Hock this season, as you all know. I think he will be the 3rd best TE on the season. I think his price will get to 7000 before too long. I hope the 3 DKP performance last week will keep people off him. But, like with Swift, the coach said they are gonna have to make sure to get Hock more involved after last week. So I’m in.

GPP Options

  • Detroit Pass Game – I am not convinced Chicago wins this game, given how they looked last week (and how decent the Detroit D looked most of the game. Not great. Decent.) I think Hock is always someone I will hammer. I think Goff (5200) has upside, even if he’s throwing passes to his RBs. I also think that Kalif Raymond (4400) and Quintez Cephus (4000) each have the ability to eat up all of the team’s targets/WR work, but it’s not a guarantee who it’s going to be. And there’s no guarantee that, some of these weeks, they’ll split too few looks. Especially when they’re competing with St. Brown (3200) and Benson (3000) and, on top of that Darren Fells (2500) got 3 targets last week, 2nd on the team among receivers.
  • Detroit D – No matter who is under Center, Detroit has a chance to put up some points against a shitty QB. It is Detroit though, so be very careful. They’re not great.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • The Bears – Andy Dalton is still limited in practice. So either he is going to play, limping as he goes (which would hurt the entirety of the team) or Justin Fields is going to start, and he showed you last week just how raw he is right now. Or, Fields plays half the game for a hobbled Dalton, which still sucks for everyone. Or Nick Foles starts for some reason, even though he hasn’t been good enough to keep a job for a few years. And that’s bad for everyone on this team. Even David Montgomery is incredibly risky (though he’s probably the best option here for GPPs, though I think he’ll be too popular regardless).

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at NY Jets (0-3)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 45.5 – TEN 26.5 – NYJ 19
Tuesday – 46 – TEN 26.75 – NYJ 19.25
Thursday – 44.5 – TEN 25.5 – NYJ 19
Friday – 44.5 – TEN 25.25 – NYJ 19.25
Saturday –

The Story

Well, I haven’t felt well this week (just a cold), with a huge flare up of my stomach problems, and some pain issues from bowling on Saturday. Yeah, I’m a fucking mess of a human. And, as much as I hate having to do all my writing so quickly (and in less depth), I’m kind of glad given all the crazy injury news that has come out today (Friday). This is one of the games that had some pretty significant news.

Namely, that both AJ Brown and Julio Jones will definitely be missing this game. That leaves the Tennessee pass game in the hands of Chester Rodgers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Cameron Batson, and Josh Reynolds (if they ever let him play). We should also expect a bunch of extra looks to Anthony Firsker, coming off his injury, with some involvement from Swaim and Pruitt as well. It’s not like Tannehill won’t have any options. He just doesn’t have any spectacular ones. 

While many people will just assume a 1:1 transfer of targets/work to the subpar WR class the Titans will be fielding, it’s more probable that they wind up leaning on the rushing game even more (especially considering this is a cake matchup against an awful Jets team), making Derrick Henry (8800) one of the best plays of the week (if not the best). 

I don’t need to tell you the Jets are a dumpster fire. Zach Wilson has arguably been the worst QB in the NFL so far. So, even though he has Corey Davis and the returning Jamison Crowder, I don’t know how you can trust either of them (especially since there’s literally no one else on this Jets roster even the slightest bit imposing. Especially with rookie Elijah Moore out. 

Even with Tevin Coleman back, no Jets RB got 5 DKP. Coleman is back this week.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Derrick Henry (8800) – With Brown and Jones out, he should get all the work he can handle, with a tremendous upside against this awful Jets team.
  • Titans D – They’re going against the Jets. What’s not to absolutely love?

GPP Options

  • No One

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • The Rest of this Game – I don’t trust the Titans pass game without Brown or Jones. I know everyone is cheap, but yuck. I could take a flier on Rogers (3300) and Westbrook-Ikhine (3200) in GPPs. But I expect these cheap guys are gonna be more expensive than they deserve, especially since a lot of their success came from not facing daunting coverage with the 2 stud WRs out. I don’t mind a flier on Firsker (3100). I don’t want any of the Jets.

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 52.5 – CLE 26.75 – MIN 25.75
Tuesday – 53 – CLE 27.5 – MIN 25.5
Thursday – 51.5 – CLE 26.75 – MIN 24.75
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

This is one of my favorite games of the week, for good reason. And that’s regardless of if Dalvin Cook comes back (which looks probable right now). It’s supposed to surpass 50 points, and it’s supposed to be close.

A 50+ point shootout? Oh, hell yeah. 

For Cleveland, I am going to follow the same path I followed last week – lean on the runners Nick Chubb and Kareem “Don’t Call me Hareem Kunt” Hunt. That’s the Browns primary strategy, and should be yours in DFS. Chubb is a great player with great upside every week, but it was Hunt who went off in week 3, racking up 81 yards on 10 carries with 1 TD, with 6 catches for 74 yards in the air. Chubb wound up with 22 rushes (more than double what Hunt got), but only got 84 yards and never received a target. 

I am also a big fan of taking Odell Beckham who did exactly what I expected last week – got targeted early and often to try to get him into game shape. He did a decent-but-not-amazing job, though he got 3 times as many targets as other receivers on the team – 9 – which he turned into 5 catches and 77 yards. 

You can also take one of the TEs – Austin Hooper, David Njoku, or Harrison Bryant – though, if last week is any indication, no one is guaranteed to do anything. Njoku and Bryant both got 0 DKP in week 3, and Njoku wasn’t even targeted. Hooper got the only receiving TD, though, just to reinforce how much Baker Mayfield loves throwing to the TEs in the red zone. We just don’t know which of the 3 it will be any given week, making them all risks. 

While I probably won’t like them most weeks, I’m also fine with the lesser receivers from the Browns. Landry is still out and, if this game is indeed a shootout, Mayfield should be throwing the ball a bunch. The question is, who do you take? I like Donovan Peoples-Jones most, followed by Rashard Higgins, Anthony Schwartz, and a decent look at Demetric Felton, who I think could have a breakout week here. 

On the Vikings side, it looks like Dalvin “Don’t Call Me Calvin Dook” Cook will play (though we need to check back tomorrow morning to be sure). If he’s gonna suit up and there aren’t reports of him being limited, I saw go heavy on him. This is gonna be a barnburner of a game and Cook will see less ownership than he deserves due to the Questionable tag. 

Last week, the Vikings pass game excelled (without Cook) and, in a faster paced shootout, they could again (even with Cook). Justin Jefferson had his first exceptional week of the season, going 9 for 11 for 118 yards and 1 TD. Tyler Conklin also broke out, going 7 for 8 for 70 yards and 1 TD. Adam Thielen went 6 for 9 for 50 yards and 1 TD, continuing his hot start. The only player who underperformed was personal favorite KJ Osborn, someone I have been recommending hard since week 1, who went only 2 for 2 for 26 yards. I expect him to bounce back here

No one else was targeted last week. That’s the kind of consolidation that can win you tournaments.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

The Vikings – I am not gonna have as much Dalvin Cook (8100) as Derrick Henry, but I will still go OTF in this high-scoring shootout. I also think we will see this highly consolidated pass game have a chance to go off. To the point I would gladly play a team stack with Kirk Cousins (6400) and 2 of Justin Jefferson (7300), KJ Osborn (3700), Adam Thielen (6800), and Tyler Conklin (3500) and run it back with at least one Brown.

Browns RBs – The Browns like to lean on their RBs more than anything else, no matter what type of game it is. In games like this, where we expect a lot of scoring, you can even get over the field by playing Nick Chubb (7000) and Kareem Hunt (6000) together, though they are getting a little too expensive for that now. I expect at least one of em to crush it this week, though, and it could be both. 

Odell Beckham (5800) – He’s the overwhelming top pass option, and they’re gonna keep working him hard. He’s way, way too cheap for his upside.

GPP Options

  • The Rest of the Browns Pass Game – I don’t mind Baker Mayfield (6200), but I worry that most of the TDs will be scored on the ground (which happens with the Browns). I also think the rest of the players are splitting work, making it hard to trust anyone. I think at least one TE will pay off, but which one? Hooper (3700) may be the best bet. Njoku (3100) has had some excellent games. And Bryant (2500) is too cheap for someone getting targets every game. The WR situation is also crowded, on top of them being the 4th or 5th target at most times (behind Beckham, the RBs, and a TE or two). Higgins (4300) is too expensive, but has potential. Peoples-Jones (3200) and Schwartz (3000) are riskier plays, but could see work as well. I also really like Felton (4300), though he takes up an RB slot, and should be priced in the low-3000s like a GPP-quality WR.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • No One

Indy Colts (0-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 43.5 – MIA 22.5 – IND 21
Tuesday – 43 – MIA 22.25 – IND 20.75
Thursday – 42.5 – MIA 22.25 – IND 20.25
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

This is gonna be a game where my highest ownership is going to be on the defenses. I’m kind of surprised the total is 42.5, to be honest. These teams are wrecks.

Carson Wentz was hobbled last week (and should be hobbled this week, too). He only got you 7.76 DKP and I’m not too confident he surpasses that here. 

Jonathan Taylor is also dealing with an injury that should limit his effectiveness. Even still, he’s coming off back-to-back performances of 8.2 and 6.3 DKP. Even though he started at 8000 in week 1, his price has come down to 6300 so I understand taking a chance on his talent. But it hasn’t paid off yet, and I don’t expect him to suddenly crush it while nursing a knee injury. I am fine with Nyheim Hines, who should benefit from all the dump-off passes (as he did last week, to the tune of 18.9 DKP). 

With Wentz under center, it’s tough to trust any of the WRs. Michael Pittman looks like a legit WR1, coming off 23.3 DKP in week 2 and 13.3 last week. He had 12 targets in both weeks. I wouldn’t take Pascal or Campbell in anything but the deepest GPPs. 

With Jack Doyle also nursing an injury, he becomes tougher to trust (especially only getting in one limited practice all week). If you want to continue the deep GPP play here, look at Mo Aliie-Cox, who should step in whenever Doyle is unable to take the field. 

With Tua still out, I don’t know how you can trust anyone on this Dolphins team. Still, Jacoby Brissett showed last week that, like most shitty QBs, he’s all about the TE and Slot receiver – Mike Gesicki got 12 targets, which he turned into 10 receptions for 86 yards. Jaylen Waddle got 13 targets, which he turned into 12 receptions for 58 yards. We saw some looks go to Parker and Fuller (in his first week in uniform for Miami), but, given how bad he is, Brissett was unsuccessful at hitting those deep passes you need for those guys to pay off. 

I also don’t trust the run game, with Gaskin underperforming, and losing TDs to Malcolm Brown and, in recent weeks (but not week 3), Salvon Ahmed.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

The Defenses – With Brissett and an injured Wentz under center for both teams, give me all the Dolphins D (3200) and Colts D (2700)

Mike Gesicki (4000) and Jaylen Waddle (4900) – Will be the safety valves for a shitty QB. I wouldn’t be surprised if they both exceed 10+ targets again this week. 

Nyheim Hines (4900) – Has been great when the Colts need to pass it. And should be used more with Taylor and Doyle hobbled and Doyle.

GPP Options

  • Michael Pittman (5400) – The clear first option for Wentz, has been doing well, even when the Colts haven’t. 

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • Everyone Else – I don’t trust an injured Wentz (5400) or Taylor (6300) or Doyle (2700). I don’t trust the secondary receivers. I don’t trust Brissett (5100) or his wide outs. Or the Miami run game. At all.

Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 50 – DAL 27 – CAR 23
Tuesday – 50.5 – DAL 27.75 – CAR 22.75
Thursday – 51.5 – DAL 28 – CAR 23.5
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

If everyone was healthy, this had the chance of turning into a real exceptional game (with how the Panthers have been playing). As it stands, I think this game is going to be overowned, and I think it’s gonna go under the original Vegas total of 50.

First up, while the Panthers have had the 3rd easiest schedule in the game, they have still managed to put up the best D over the first 3 weeks (and it’s not that close). They are 1st against the run and first against the pass. They are projected to finish the season as the 5th best defense when everything is considered, so it’s not like they’re gonna completely fall off. 

In addition, while facing the 10th hardest schedule so far, the Cowboys have managed to put up the 14th best pass D and the 12th pass rush D so far. Not nearly as good as the Panthers, but still pretty damn good (and against a much tougher schedule). And proof that, no matter where you go in this game, they are gonna face some difficulties in moving the ball and/or scoring.

And since I think this game is going to have a lot of ownership, I’m probably gonna wind up going under almost everywhere.

Zeke Elliot had his first good week of the season (and pretty much his first good week since the beginning of 2020), but I think those 2 TDs were flukey and the result of pass catchers going down on the 1 (and not Zeke doing all the work). He had only 17 rush attempts for 95 yards, despite the Cowboys winning by nearly 3 TDs (and running the ball a bunch). Tony Pollard wound up with 11 rush attempts for 60 yards, but didn’t get the goal line touches. Still, he has in weeks in the past. And the fact they interchange both so often makes me want to use both less. 

Alternately, given the pricing, you could do the same thing that you might do with the Browns – play both. Cause the Panthers are gonna be without McCaffrey, so, even if this game is low scoring, there’s a good chance the Cowboys come out with a decent lead and just run the clock out. 

Last week, Dalton Schultz led the Cowboys in targets, with 7, which he turned into 6 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs. He is huge and imposing and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was a foreshadowing of things to come, especially with Gallup out. And, in a game Dallas is supposed to win easily, he’s a great way to keep the ball and clock moving. 

Their 2 big WRs, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb had down games, despite the big scoring week from Dallas. Cooper went 3 for 4 for 26 yards. Lamb went 3 for 3 for 66 yards. Neither got a TD. Given how tough Carolina is (and the fact I think Dallas keeps a lead in this game), they may repeat their showings this week. 

I don’t mind a GPP look at Cedrick Wilson, who is the WR3 and only went 2 for 4 for 17 yards last week, but also scored a TD. 

The Carolina side is tougher to peg with McCaffrey out.

After CMC went down last week, Chuba Hubbard picked up the mantle, though he only wound up getting 11 carries for 52 yards, with 3 receptions for 27 yards in the air. Both are decent, sure. But 5900 is a pretty high price for someone who should be decent today, but not someone I consider a tremendous value play. Royce Freeman got half those touches – 5 – but could only get 17 yards. He’s also not min priced.

If you think Carolina is playing from behind, I get wanting to lean more on the pass game. Dallas has been pretty hit or miss when it comes to stopping the pass this year and these guys haven’t been bad. Sam Darnold had 20 DKP in week 1, 23 DKP in week 2, and 28 DKP in week 3. He had 2 rushing TDs last week and, without CMC, I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs another one in this week. 

He also has a couple receivers with fantastic potential – DJ Moore went 8 for 12 last week for 126 yards. Robby Anderson, on the other hand, continued his lackluster 2021, going 1 for 2 for 8 yards. Terrace Marshall may have stepped into the WR2 role here, going 4 for 5 with 48 yards, yet another week Marshall had some nice plays. 

Also, with the Panthers trading away Dan Arnold to improve their pass defense (another reason to maybe look at the Dallas pass game less), we may see Tommy Tremble step into the TE1 role here. I have a feeling he will be overhyped and overowned, though, so I wouldn’t consider him a sure thing or a value lock or anything.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • No One

GPP Options

  • This Entire Game – I gave pretty detailed analysis why i feel this way – I think the game is going to go overowned, and there are very, very few places I feel are absolute locks. However, there are a ton of people with a decent amount of potential to go off. Let’s go in order: I don’t mind the Dallas run game, Ezekiel Elliot (6500) and Tony Pollard (5700). I don’t mind DJ Moore (6600). I don’t mind Sam Darnold (6000) and Tommy Tremble (2500). I’ll have some Dalton Schultz (3400). I also don’t mind Terrace Marshall (4000) and Cedrick Wilson (4000) at this price. I will have some exposure to Anderson (5100), Dak (6700), Cooper (6000), and Lamb (6700).

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • No One

NY Giants (0-3) at NO Saints (2-1)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 43.5 – NO 25.75 – NYG 17.75
Tuesday – 43.5 – NO 25.5 – NYG 18
Thursday – 42 – NO 24.5 – NYG 17.5
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

This is another game that’s a pretty big mess, but we should still find some diamonds in the rough. 

I can start by saying I do not like the Giants this week. Despite having the 16th toughest schedule (which isn’t tremendous, but is still top half in the NFL), the Saints have fielded the 3rd best defense in the game so far, including being 3rd best against the rush and the 6th against the pass. And, even though they’re 3rd right now, they are projected to actually improve and finish the season 2nd overall. 

I mean, do you really want to go nuts on a Giants team expected to lose by a TD, where most of their biggest play guys are injured or underperforming??

Saquon Barkley had his first good week in forever, but it was against a shitty Falcons defense. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was back to sub-10 DKP in this one, but drawing ownership as if he was 2018 Barkley. I’m not gonna bite. Like I said in week 1, it’s gonna take a couple weeks of looking real good for me to trust Saquon. A week he got 51 yards on 16 touches, averaging about 3 yards per carry isn’t it. 

With how far the Giants are supposed to be behind, I don’t mind taking a few shares of the pass game. Daniel Jones has been pretty good this year, even though he’s coming off his worst performance of the season (which still netted him 16.5 DKP on 266 through the air and 39 yards on the ground). He should have a pretty tough time against NO, but he’s shown the ability to scramble extremely well this season, and I like the floor that gives us. 

The problem is: who does he pass to? Sterling Shepard is OUT. Darius Slayton is OUT. That leaves a receiving corps of Evan Engram at TE, with Kenny Golladay the easy WR1 (that should be doubled all game), with Kadarius Toney, Collin Johnson, the recently activated John Ross, and CJ Board fighting for the scraps. I don’t know how you can trust any of those dudes completely, though Engram certainly has the talent to excel here, Toney is a rookie with a bunch of potential, Ross has the speed to take anything to the house, and Johnson is coming off a 5 catch, 51 yard game. 

Being 7 point favorites against a bad Giants team/defense could translate into a huge week for Alvin Kamara, who has the chance to catch a bunch of dump offs, but also continually run the ball down the Giants’ throats. He has easy 2 TD upside today, at least. Sure that’s not a guarantee. Sure someone (like Hill or Jones) could vulture some of his work. Or he could get injured. Or the Giants could come out and force Jameis Winston to throw all game. But do you really think any of those are more likely than Kamara getting the better of this Giants squad repeatedly?

Winston is coming off a 13.5 DKP performance where the Saints scored 28 points. So that should tell you that, even if the Saints are projected to do well, it doesn’t really guarantee we get anything serviceable from Winston. I mean, just look at last week. The Saints held a sizeable, but not insurmountable, lead against the Pats. Winston still wound up with only 13 completions on only 21 attempts for only 128 yards. How can you trust any of those receivers? Especially when the one worthwhile player switches every week. 

Last week it was Marquez Callaway, who only saw 5 targets, which he turned into a mediocre 4 catches for 41 yards, but saved his day with a TD. Harris and Stills each got 3 targets. Harris turned it into 3 receptions for 31 yards. Stills caught 1 for 17 yards. Yuck on both. No one else on the Saints got a reception (or more than 1 target).

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

  • Alvin Kamara (8400) – Should be able to run it down the Giants’ throats today. With all the cheap plays out there, I don’t think it’s crazy to try to get 3 elite RBs in your lineup today. 

GPP Options

Daniel Jones (5800) – The Giants should be playing from behind, which means Jones should be throwing it constantly. Even if he doesn’t have a solid group to throw to. He has also been running really well this season, giving him a decent floor. I mean, in his worst week on the ground so far this season he got you 3.9 DKP, which is more than Justin Fields had all of last week with his arm and legs. 

Evan Engram (3000) and Kenny Golladay (5500) – If Jones is throwing it constantly, who do you think he’s throwing it to? I worry about Golladay facing elite coverage all game, and him being too popular. So I will probably wind up being under the field. But I like Engram plenty. And both have the chance to get you value here from volume alone.

Saints D (3800) – I have respect for Jones, but the Saints D has been so good. And the Giants are missing their 2 best pass catchers here. You gotta give them at least some consideration.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

Saints Pass Game – I look at last week and expect a repeat from the pass game – namely, maybe one person that gets you a halfway decent game, and everyone else making you wish you didn’t play them. I am going to avoid Winston (5600), Humphrey (3000), Hogan (3000), Stills (3000), Juwan Johnson (2800), and Trautman (2900). I understand having some GPP exposure to Callaway (4300) and Harris (3500). Both are cheap enough to give them a shot. 

Saquon Barkley (6700) – I will have some exposure, sure. But I don’t expect I’ll have anywhere near where the field is. I like him to catch a handful of passes, giving him a nice floor. I just wouldn’t be surprised if he still winds up under 10 DKP at more ownership than you’d think.

The Other Giants Receivers – I mean, you can use them as cheap GPP options, sure. But I don’t know how you don’t consider Toney (3300), Johnson (3200), Ross (3000), or Board (3000) as anything other than 1 out of 150 lineup plays. Even with Shepard and Slayton out.


KC Chiefs (1-2) at Philly Eagles (1-2)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 55 – KC 30.5 – PHI 24.5
Tuesday – 54.5 – KC 31 – PHI 23.5
Thursday – 54.5 – KC 30.75 – PHI 23.75
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

If you haven’t been able to tell over the last couple years of me doing this, one of my favorite team defensive metrics (if not my favorite) is DVOA. I think, given everything, it’s the most accurate and the most telling. And I know a lot of other folks feel the same. 

So when you see that the Chiefs this season have the worst defense according to DVOA and that they are almost twice as bad as the 30th place defense, you believe it. Not only that, they are also worst against the pass, and worst against the run. When it comes to the run, they are more than twice as bad as the 2nd worst team. I mean you can call them McLovin, cause they’ve been Superbad. Granted, they’ve had a tough schedule, and the Eagles are almost definitely the easiest group they’ve seen so far. 

But there’s a reason the Chiefs are 1-2 and in last place in their division. And it ain’t Patrick Mahomes and company.

So take a long, long hard look at Jalen Hurts today. I haven’t looked at ownership yet (I don’t look at anything but stats and injury reports until I’m completely done with analysis), but I would be shocked if he’s nearly as highly owned as he should be. I will be double the field if I can be.

I mean, the Chiefs can’t stop him if he throws or runs. Sounds like gold to me. 

If you wanna take the run game as well, I understand. Even though I think Miles Sanders is too expensive, he has the upside to get you a couple TDs. Especially against a Chiefs run D that couldn’t stop a car if they were a red light. I also would have a decent amount of Ken Gainwell, someone who is running a pretty equal share with Sanders in both the ground and air, with goal line upside (as he showed in week 1). He’s also more than 2000 cheaper than Sanders. And should see a fraction of his ownership. Boston Scott saw his first action last week, but it was only in junk time, so I don’t consider him a threat to eat into anyone’s playing time. 

I am a bigger fan of taking the pass catchers here, all of whom have loads of talent, and all of whom have pretty substantial upside against such a fast-paced, high scoring team that will force the Eagles to throw all game (and then do little to stop them). That means having a decent amount of Smith, Reagor, Quez Watkins, Goedert, and Ertz. Smith, Reagor, Watkins, and Goedert are all averaging between 9 and 10 DKP a week, with the potential to easily surpass that number this week. Ertz is coming off a 15 DKP performance and, while he’s down the chart when it comes to looks, he still has the ability to hit big, as you saw last week. 

I expect this to be one of the highest scoring games of the week (if not the highest). I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes over the 55 Vegas projects. So if you want to play the usual suspects on the Chiefs, you should feel confident. Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are good-if-not-amazing plays every week. I don’t need to tell you that. 

I’m also a fan of Hardman and Pringle, who look like the two dudes fighting over the WR2 spot. Last week, Hardman went 3 for 4 for 33 yards with 1 touchdown. Pringle went 2 for 6 for 12 yards. He didn’t capitalize on his looks, but he still drew the 3rd most targets on the team. And one of these weeks that’s gonna pay off big, at no ownership. 

Anyone else in this passing game (like Robinson and Fortson) are deep GPP plays at best. 

I am also not convinced by Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s performance last week. I mean, he did great, don’t get me wrong. 17 rushes for 100 yards. 2 receptions for 9 yards and a TD. 20.9 DKP for only 4800. And he’s only up to 5400 this week. Against an Eagles defense that’s been 13th against the pass and 22nd against the run. It makes sense to play him for sure. But, as is the case with most plays, if you do put him in your lineup, be prepared for abject disappointment. Even if the Chiefs score a ton of points. 

I guess, CEH’s usage comes down to the story you tell about this game. Is it a Chiefs blowout of a hapless Eagles squad? Then play a bunch of CEH, cause he should get a decent amount of work. Is it gonna be a close game, a shootout, or will the Chiefs be playing from behind? CEH may not get the work you’re looking for.

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

Jalen Hurts (6900) – Is Jalen Hurts an incredibly talented player in a great spot today? Yes. Is he in contention for my favorite QB of the day? Yes. Is his name a sentence all by itself? Yes. Will I turn my recommendation of him into an REM parody one of these weeks when I have more time? You better fucking believe it. 

Eagles Pass Catchers – All of them have the potential to absolutely go off today, and none are expensive enough. I will take, in order, Jalen Reagor (4700), Devonta Smith (5700), Quez Watkins (3500), Goedert (4800), and Ertz (3500). I have no problem stacking Hurts, 2 of these dudes, and 2 Chiefs running it back. I really, really like this game.

The Big 3 Chiefs – The defense keeps forcing them to throw the ball all the time. Which always bodes well for Mahomes (8100), Kelce (8100), and Hill (8000). They’re just (justifiably) expensive. But I want a ton of them here. Especially as part of game stacks.

GPP Options

Eagles RBs – I like their upsides here. I particularly like Gainwell (4300) given his price and his involvement in the pass game. Sanders (6400) should still get more work, though, and should also have the higher upside

CEH (5400) – Like I said before, I don’t think it’s impossible he gets you another 20 DKP. So you can’t fade him at this price. But I don’t have a ton of faith he’ll have a repeat performance. 

Mecole Hardman (4400) and Byron Pringle (3000) – Hardman is the de facto WR2 here, in a high scoring shootout. He got the only TD by a receiver last week. Pringle had the 3rd most targets on the team and, because he hasn’t had a breakout game, he’s still minimum price. Bonkers.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • No One

Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

Kickoff is Sunday, 1pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 48 – BUF 32.5 – HOU 15.5 (holy shit!. BUF -17!?!?)
Tuesday – 47.5 – BUF 32 – HOU 15.5
Thursday – 47 – BUF 32 – HOU 15
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

My God. 

An abject slaughter. 

I feel like this is the end of Of Mice and Men and Houston is Lennie right now. They may be big and powerful, but they have no idea they’re about to get fucking murdered. 

Well, they probably know.

I mean when’s the last time you saw a 17 point underdog???

What you do here really comes down to how you think the game plays out. 

Do you think Buffalo has a big enough lead that most of the starters sit out the 4th quarter and we see Mitch Trubisky throwing the ball to Isaiah McKenzie or Jake Kumerow? I sure do.

Do you think Allen and Diggs and Beasley and Sanders and Davis and Knox will score enough points in the air before the subs come in to make them worthwhile plays at their prices? I sure don’t.  Especially if Buffalo comes out to a big lead quickly. I mean, I’m sure a couple of these guys will hitl. But how can you really count on anyone here?  If you believe Buffalo still throws a ton with a commanding lead and keeps their foot on the pedal, keep playing these guys. Cause, if that’s the case, Buffalo could score 50 points here. I think Buffalo will take the easy win, let the runners run the clock down and the subs get some 4th quarter reps. 

Do you think the Bills lean on Zack Moss again, who had his second consecutive fantastic outing (after being benched in week 1), putting up 18.1 DKP on 60 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 31 air yards, and 1 TD? Devin Singletary looked like the RB2, getting outsnapped, out-targeted, and outperformed. If you want to play him at his price, I’m fine with it (as a GPP play), but I am gonna ride more with Moss this week. 

Do you think Davis Mills will play well against a Bills D that ranks 2nd in the NFL right now? The Bills are 2nd against the pass and 5th against the rush and they get Davis Mills?? The Bills D that is projected to finish the season as the best D in the NFL? Get the fuck out of here. 

Do you think anyone on this Texans team other than Brandin Cooks and maybe Andrew Miller have enough talent to get around the many stumbling blocks they’ll be facing this game (the opposing D and their QB, mainly). 

Do you think Ingram and Johnson and Lindsay will suddenly be the first 3-headed RB committee to be worth playing? Against this team? When they’re supposed to lose the game by 17??

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

Zack Moss (5300) and Devin Singletary (4800) – I think Moss, over the last 2 weeks, has earned lead back duties here (though I expect Singletary to still start). I like him more. But this game should be such a slaughter that both could pay off, and I don’t think the “play both RBs” strat is out of the question here. 

Bills D (4300) – If the Bills D isn’t the highest owned today, then it’s probably Detroit. 

GPP Options

Bills Pass Game – While I will almost certainly wind up under the field on these Bills passing game guys (since they won’t need to pass it much). You just can’t fade them, given their insane upside. So feel free to force some exposure to Allen (8000), Diggs (7600), Beasley (5400), Sanders (4900), and Knox (3600). But know this could get so bad we start seeing subs come in. So feel free to play 1 out of 150 lineups with McKenzie (3100) since it wouldn’t be too hard for him to pay off, even if he doesn’t get a target til junk time. 

Brandin Cooks (6400) – I may very well end up over the field on Cooks. He’s just that good. Week 1- 21.2 DKP. Week 2- 22.8 DKP. Week 3 – 23.7 DKP. And that last one was with Davis fucking Mills as his QB (and without scoring a TD!). Dude goes out and gets it every week. 

Anthony Miller (3700) – Finally got in his first game of the season last week and, when Cooks was being stopped, Miller was able to step in, getting 4 catches for 60 yards and a TD (12 DKP). I expect that the Bills will sell out to stop Cooks, leaving Miller in a great spot to exceed value once again. Get in before his price is 5000.

UTF (Under the Field) Plays

  • The Rest of the Texans – Yuck. Davis Mills (4900)? No. Three headed RB committee? No. Just no.

Arizona Cards (3-0) at LA Rams (3-0)

Kickoff is Sunday, 405pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 53.5 – LAR 29.75 – ARI 23.75
Tuesday – 54.5 – LAR 29.75 – ARI 24.75
Thursday – 55 – LAR 29.5 – ARI 25.5
Friday – 54.5 – LAR 29.25 – ARI 25.25
Saturday –

The Story

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

GPP Options

UTF (Under the Field) Plays


Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at SF 49ers (2-1)

Kickoff is Sunday, 405pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 51 – SF 27 – SEA 24
Tuesday – 52 – SF 27.25 – SEA 24.75
Thursday – SAME
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

GPP Options

UTF (Under the Field) Plays


Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

Kickoff is Sunday, 425pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 44.5 – DEN 22.75 – BAL 21.75
Tuesday – SAME
Thursday – 45 – PICK EM!!
Friday – 45 – BAL 23 – DEN 22
Saturday –

The Story

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

GPP Options

UTF (Under the Field) Plays


Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at GB Packers (2-1)

Kickoff is Sunday, 425pm EST.

Vegas Lines

Open – 47 – GB 27 – PIT 20
Tuesday – 45.5 – GB 26 – PIT 19.5
Thursday – SAME
Friday – SAME
Saturday –

The Story

OTF (Over The Field) Plays

GPP Options

UTF (Under the Field) Plays


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